Tags: Doll | economy | US | GDP

Nuveen's Doll: Economy Will Grow 3 Percent This Year

By    |   Thursday, 08 January 2015 11:07 AM

The beginning of the year is always forecast time, and Robert Doll, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist of Nuveen Asset Management, offers 10 predictions for 2015.

They include:
  • "U.S. GDP grows 3 percent for the first time since 2005," he predicts, as the consumer sector strengthens. Growth averaged 2.5 percent for the first three quarters of 2014.
  • While core inflation remains contained, wage growth begins to increase.
  • The Federal Reserve raises interest rates, as short-term rates rise more than long-term rates do.
  • "The U.S. contributes more to global GDP growth than China for the first time since 2006," Doll says.
  • "U.S. equities enjoy another good yet volatile year, as corporate earnings and the U.S. dollar rise." Doll sees returns in the mid-to-high single digit range.
  • Oil prices fall further before ending the year higher than where they began, which was about $53 a barrel.
  • U.S. equity mutual funds show their first significant inflows since 2004.
"The phase of the rising tide lifting all boats appears to be ending and investing is becoming more challenging. As such, the importance of security selection will likely increase," he writes.

Meanwhile, Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, put together a list of what he sees as the 10 biggest surprises for 2015.

One prediction is that the Federal Reserve "finally raises short-term interest rates, well before the middle of the year, encouraged by the improving employment data and strong Gross Domestic Product growth," Wien writes.

"The timing proves faulty, however, as the momentum of the economy has begun to flag and a short-term slowdown has started. The end of monetary accommodation and rising rates precipitate a correction in equities."

The Fed has kept its federal funds rate target at a record zero to 0.25 percent for six years. Most economists expect it to begin raising rates around mid-year.

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The beginning of the year is always forecast time, and Robert Doll, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist of Nuveen Asset Management, offers 10 predictions for 2015.
Doll, economy, US, GDP
310
2015-07-08
Thursday, 08 January 2015 11:07 AM
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