Deutsche Bank AG, one of the Wall Street firms that trade directly with the Federal Reserve, says U.S. policy makers should raise interest rates this month if the latest economic figures are any guide.
“If the Fed is truly data dependent then they should be raising rates at their next meeting,” Torsten Slok, the chief international economist for the company in New York, wrote in a report Tuesday. Manufacturing, factory jobs, consumer spending and inflation are all improving, according to the report.
Treasuries began March with their biggest selloff this year after the Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing, while shrinking in February, was at the highest level since September. The U.S. economy probably gained 195,000 jobs in February, on top of 151,000 in January, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists before data due Friday.
The benchmark 10-year note was little changed Wednesday with a yield of 1.83 percent as of 11 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in February 2026 was 98 1/8.
U.S. government debt fell 0.5 percent Tuesday, based on the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index. It was the biggest decline since Dec. 3. The gauge is up 2.5 percent in 2016.
The odds the Fed will follow its December rate increase with another in 2016 are about 64 percent, futures prices compiled by Bloomberg indicate. The figure has climbed from as low as 11 percent in February.
The minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting held Jan. 26-27 showed a number of participants stressed the importance of getting people to understand that monetary policy is “data dependent” and not on a set course. The Fed’s next meeting is March 15-16.
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