Some on Wall Street appear to be warming up to presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
And they have a message for markets: A Trump presidency could be a catalyst for big gains,
CNBC recently reported.
"A Trump presidency could add up to a positive for equities," Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors founder, told CNBC. Lee argued that Trump won't tolerate currency manipulation, that he'll be savvy when it comes to fiscal policy, and that he will establish a pro-business environment.
"I think Trump's approach to trade could reduce fears among business that their profits will be heavily taxed. Based on this, I think he could surprise to the upside for equities," Lee added.
Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus isn't fearing a Trump presidency. He has urged investors to avoid sitting on the sidelines this month, as his firm expects S&P 500 earnings to grow around 8 percent this year, CNBC reported.
"Markets always worry when uncertainty is a factor, and it is unclear which policies Trump would execute if elected," said Stoltzfus. "However, I'd expect him to enact policies that reflect his ability to successfully negotiate with people. He relies on good relationships with politicians and Wall Street, and I don't expect that to change."
But Trump and Hillary Clinton, the two leading candidates for the White House, have some anti-business plans. It's a mistake for investors to ignore these red flags, one expert explained to
CNN Money.
"This extraordinary political volatility hasn't sunk in yet on Wall Street, which needs to come to grips with the fact that [any outcome] is quite negative," wrote Greg Valliere, chief strategist at Horizon Investments, in a note last week.
Clinton wants to raise taxes on investment gains and make it a lot more difficult for big businesses to move abroad to save on taxes. She's also talked about imposing a fee on big banks, among other stiffer regulations on Wall Street.
Trump likes to promote himself as the ultimate businessman, but many of his policies appear even more contrary to the traditional U.S. business agenda. He slams free trade and talks of hiking taxes on foreign imports and punishing companies that ship jobs overseas.
He wants to deport millions of illegal immigrants and tighten border controls. On top of that, he regularly insults prominent American companies like Ford and Apple.
The best case scenario for business in Valliere's mind is a "modest Clinton win" where her zeal for more regulation would be kept in check by a Republican-led Congress.
Warren Buffett, chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc, has said a Trump presidency wouldn’t be the blow to U.S. business that some fear,
Bloomberg reported.
“If either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton becomes president, and one of them is very likely to be, I think Berkshire will continue to do fine,” Buffett, 85, said at the company’s annual shareholders meeting Saturday in Omaha, Nebraska.
The outcome of November’s presidential election is unlikely to change the fact that the U.S. is a “remarkably attractive place in which to conduct a business,” said Buffett, who endorsed Democrat Clinton at an Omaha rally in December. U.S. companies have enjoyed “terrific” returns on equity despite a sustained period of ultra-low interest rates, he added.
Trump and Clinton are their parties’ respective front-runners in a campaign that has exposed discontent with Washington insiders, anger over global trade deals, frustration with Wall Street and furor over the growing gap between rich and poor. At the same time, each candidate’s unfavorable rating exceeds 50 percent, a historically high figure at this late stage in the primary season.
Buffett, who has criticized Trump in the past and scorned politicians’ pessimism about the country, looked past the current voter angst for a longer view of U.S. economic prospects.
‘Far More’
“Twenty years from now, there’ll be far more output per capita in the United States in real terms than there is now. In 50 years, it’ll be far more,” Buffett said. “No presidential candidate or president is going to end that. They can shape it in ways that are good or bad, but they can’t end it.”
Asked how a Trump presidency might affect Berkshire’s business, Buffett replied, “That won’t be the main problem.” He didn’t elaborate.
(Newsmax wire services contributed to this report).
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