Tags: citigroup | donald trump | recession | willem buiter

Citigroup's Buiter: Trump Presidency Could Mean Recession

Citigroup's Buiter: Trump Presidency Could Mean Recession

By    |   Tuesday, 20 September 2016 07:32 AM EDT


Citigroup Inc. chief economist Willem Buiter contains to paint a very bleak and dire economic situation should Republican candidate Donald Trump win the White House.

“A Trump victory in particular could prolong and perhaps exacerbate policy uncertainty and deliver a shock (though perhaps short-lived) to financial markets,” Buiter wrote in a recent note. “Tightening financial conditions and further rises in uncertainty could trigger a significant slowdown in U.S., but also global growth,” he wrote.

Buiter argues that a slowdown would cause the Federal Reserve to not increase rates if Trump gets elected in November, the Country Caller reported. The Federal Reserve is expected to make a rate hike this year by at least 25 basis points, as several economists believe that the core decision will be made after the elections, which supports Buiter’s argument.  

The U.S. economy last entered a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of year-on-year economic contraction — in December 2007, after the housing bubble burst, leading to a global financial crisis. That recession, dubbed the Great Recession, ended in mid-2009, making it the longest U.S. recession since the end of World War II, CNBC reported.

To be sure, Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Asset Management, warns that the U.S. and world economies are on the path to economic chaos.

“We’re in a manufacturing recession,” he explained to CNBC. And because of Brexit, “the world is entering into a global recession.”

He explained that a unique combination of economic and financial factors may possibly doom the U.S. 

"The fuel for the rising market, which is stock buybacks, is declining. June was the least amount of stock buybacks in many a month. For the first half of this year, we have seen a one-third decline in announced buybacks," he said. "That is the only fuel for us taking stock higher — companies giving money to shareholders by reducing the share count," he said.

"We’re also seeing a dramatic decline in growth in the U.S. economy’s incomes," he said. "Everybody talks about spending and GDP, but it’s incomes that count," he said.

He said individuals are showing a 2 percent gain in income and that’s not enough to take the economy higher.

(Newsmax wire services contributed to this report).

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Citigroup Inc. chief economist Willem Buiter has been vocal towards the impact if Republican candidate, Donald Trump, takes the White House.
citigroup, donald trump, recession, willem buiter
Tuesday, 20 September 2016 07:32 AM
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