Tags: Doll | stock | volatility | Fed

Nuveen's Doll: More Stock Market Gains Ahead for 2015, But With More Volatility

By    |   Monday, 22 December 2014 12:07 PM

Slow global growth could actually be beneficial for the U.S. economy, according to Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management.

Weaker international business activity would mean the benefit of lower commodity prices and subdued interest rates at home, he tells CNBC. "That more than offsets the weakness that comes because we can't export more."

But that will not stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates in the middle of 2015, Doll predicted. He said the fact that the domestic economy is on pace to grow 3 percent this year is simply not consistent with the central bank's current zero percent interest policies.

"We have nominal GDP in the United States approaching 5 percent — 3 percent real and almost 2 percent inflation. That's not consistent with short-term interest rates," Doll argued. "We got to zero because we had an emergency. The emergency's passed."

Doll expects the stock market to go up again in 2015, but thinks the continued rise will be accompanied by more volatility.

"There's nothing like liquidity to keep things moving to the upside. Slowly but surely, starting with the Fed and the U.K., we're removing that liquidity, and that's just going to create a normal set of volatility," he noted.

Doll also predicted some fallout from the collapse of oil prices.

"Does it cause a financial problem? Does it cause a credit problem? We don't know the answer to that, but it happens so fast, I can't believe we're going to get through that without some bumps along the way," he said.

Another noted stock prognosticator, Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, expressed near-term optimism on his blog, saying "investors have good reason to believe in Santa."

"Since 1928, December has been the best month for stocks, with an average gain of 1.5 percent. That matches July's average, but December has been up 64 times and down 22 times, while July has been up 49 times and down 38 times," Yardeni wrote.

"By the way, the January Barometer is likely to be wrong this year. The S&P 500 fell 3.6 percent during the first month of this year, but is up nicely year to date, especially if Santa's rally continues through the end of the year."

Birinyi Associates' Ticker Sense poll of prominent investment bloggers showed bullish sentiment making a comeback over the previous week, when bearish sentiment hit 52 percent.

With the Dec. 22 reading, bullish sentiment hit 45.83 percent, compared with 37.50 percent who were bearish and 16.67 percent who were neutral.

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Slow global growth could actually be beneficial for the U.S. economy, according to Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management.
Doll, stock, volatility, Fed
Monday, 22 December 2014 12:07 PM
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