It is time for us to put on our John Templeton caps. Templeton’s marquee saying was “You buy when there is maximum pessimism.” With the equity and commodity markets rallying quite nicely from their lows, we are looking for assets that are still cheap.
Natural gas looks to be such a asset. Now, all the news about natural gas is bad. Demand is down 2.6 percent because of the recession and supply is 18 percent above the past five-year average. However, when it comes to buying cheap assets in maximum pessimism, this is always the case.
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The news is always bad at bottom. Just look at commodities late last year or banking stocks in March. At a bottom, every reason in the world is given for that asset to go lower. However, there comes a point where all the bad news is discounted.
The October contract for natural gas fell to $2.51, the lowest level for natural gas since 2002.
In addition, if you were adjust the natural gas price for inflation, it is probably below its 2001 low of $1.88.
With many assets having rallied since March, natural gas is a beaten up value play worth looking at. Pessimism is rampant in the natural gas market, and that is usually the time to buy.
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