When it comes to investing, there are no bonus points for originality. Returns are returns, regardless of whether the trade was your idea or a hot tip from your brother in law.
The good news is that the SEC makes available far better trading moves than those of your brother in law. Large institutional investors are required to disclose their portfolio holdings at least quarterly, giving the investing public a chance to look over their shoulders.
You don’t want to mindlessly ape another investor’s moves because you have no way of knowing their rationale for buying or selling. But it never hurts to see how your own portfolio stacks up against some of the best in the business.
So with that said, let’s take a look at the asset allocations of three managers that have left the competition in the dust over their long careers.
I’ll start with Baupost Capital’s Seth Klarman, a man whose reputation in value investor circles makes him close to demigod status. Klarman runs a multi-billion-dollar portfolio with just 40 stocks in it. That’s how confident he is in his picks.
So, what is Mr. Klarman betting on?
Try energy. Lots of energy. 39% of his portfolio was invested in energy as of quarter end with nearly half of that amount in a single stock.
It’s worth noting here that Klarman isn’t betting on the price of oil rising or on “Big Oil” stocks in general. His bet is a targeted one on liquefied natural gas exportation. But it goes to show that, even in a full-blown crisis, there can be pockets of opportunity.
Next, let’s take a look at Dan Loeb, principal of hedge fund Third Point. Loeb is not a passive investor. He’s a notorious activist investor known for taking large stakes in companies and then agitating for major change. You and I don’t have that kind of power, but we can still take a peek over his shoulder and see where he sees the most value.
Today, it’s in healthcare. About 40% of his portfolio is currently invested in health and biotech stocks.
I don’t have the stomach to invest 40% of my portfolio in the volatile biotech sector. But my good friend Ben Benoy is something of an expert on the matter.
And finally, we get to Mohnish Pabrai, a well-respected value investor and the author of one of my favorite books on investing, The Dhandho Investor. Pabrai runs the most concentrated portfolio I have ever seen among large managers. He has just seven stocks in his portfolio, and global auto stocks make up nearly 70% of the total.
Longer term, autos are a bad bet. Demographic trends suggest that, at least in the US and Europe, auto sales are looking at a major reduction in demand. But any stock can be an interesting short-term opportunity if priced right, and Pabrai is currently showing a handsome profit on the trade.
So, what’s the takeaway here? Buy energy, biotech and auto stocks?
Not exactly. For all we know, these superinvestors might dump these stocks tomorrow … if they haven’t already (we typically get the ownership data on a 45-day lag).
No, the takeaway is that it’s fine to bet big on a high-conviction trade if your system or research tells you to. You should have an exit strategy, of course, and you should be prepared to sell if you investing thesis fails to pan out. But don’t be afraid to bet big when the odds are in your favor.
Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is chief investment officer of the investment firm Sizemore Capital Management and the author of the Sizemore Insights blog. As of this writing, he was long AAPL and MSFT. To read more of his work,
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Disclaimers: If I mention a stock favorably, you should assume that I have a position in it, both personally and in client accounts. This does not, however, automatically mean that you should own it. I am expressing my opinions in this newsletter, not offering individualized financial advice or soliciting you to buy securities. See full disclaimer
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