Tags: spetrino | real investor | facebook | IPO

Facebook : A Real Investor’s Take on the IPO

By    |   Thursday, 31 May 2012 08:34 PM EDT

In the more than 20 years that I have been a professional investor, I have never in my life heard as much scuttlebutt and information and hype than I have with Facebook.

Mark Hulbert has been writing and publishing the Hulbert Financial Digest for over 30 years, tracking the advice of over 180 newsletters since 1980.

Constructing hypothetical, model portfolios according to the advice contained in those advisories, the HFD has provided the first objective means with which to compare the worth of investment newsletters. It quickly became the standard source for comparative performance data and now has more than 30 years of research into the performance of financial newsletters.

Editor's Note: Inside the World’s Greatest Retirement Lie
Find Out the Truth, See the Details.

As of the January 2012 issue, of all portfolios that are also low risk (which is volatility at least 40% less than the Wilshire 5000 over the same period) in a one-year time span, my newsletter, The Dividend Machine, was No. 1 in performance of 19.7%, which was top-rated in this risk category.

Of course 99% of all the other "pundits" who have discussed Facebook so extensively have little or no skill picking stocks like proven professionals like myself do.

However, because of all this misinformation and nonsense the media have reported, I decided to speak out.

Facebook the company in my opinion is a solid business, but at the IPO price of $38 I personally felt it was overpriced.

I won't bore you with the details why, but somehow people want to blame the founder, Mark Zuckerberg, and many media outlets want Zuckerberg to speak out.

Editor's Note: Inside the World’s Greatest Retirement Lie
Find Out the Truth, See the Details.

The fact is the public controls the price of stocks, not Mr Zuckerberg; he merely said what price he was willing to take so you could be his partner.

It is up to you as an investor to decide if you feel that price is fair or not.

But somehow we live in a society today where everyone gets a trophy and wants to be guaranteed a winning result.

If you want a guarantee, then buy a 10-year Treasury note at 1.58%.

If you want to be Mr. Zuckerberg’s partner in Facebook and take some risk, then decide what price you want to pay and then call your broker and put in an order.

Or subscribe to a top-rated newsletter like mine for less than 25 cents per day, or hire someone who can advise you on what price or if the investment is worth making at any price.

Investing your money should be very serious, and each person should understand that nothing is a sure thing, and trying to predict what Facebook stock will do has NOTHING to do with what Apple or Google stocks did when they went public.

First decide if you think Facebook is a good business worth investing in, then decide what price you feel is appropriate.

Investors’ "results" are simply how well the investor can do this.

If you are unwilling or unable to make that determination, you have two choices: 1) don’t invest, or 2) find someone you trust that does know and follow their parameters.

But to blame the underwriters or the Facebook founder or the media for the fact the stock price dropped over 20% in eight trading days is baseless and nonsensical.

About the Author: Bill Spetrino

Bill Spetrino is a member of the Moneynews Financial Brain Trust. Click Here to read more of his articles. He is also the editor of the Dividend Machine. Discover more by Clicking Here Now.


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Thursday, 31 May 2012 08:34 PM
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