Tags: spetrino | dow | prediction

Dow 4,200? Forget About It

By    |   Friday, 09 Oct 2009 08:43 AM

Recently, a portfolio manager went on television and said the Dow would be as low as 6,300 by year end and Dow 4,200 by 2011. Did the market drop after his prediction? In fact, it went up the next two days.

His rationale is that the 27 million people out of work aren’t going to help the economy, and he recommended three-month, six-month and two-year T-bills.

No offense, but that runs contrary to many of the most successful investors of all time.

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In the past six months readers of my Dividend Machine letter have seen me my forecasts on T-bills, oil, and equities come to fruition.

However, no one has a monopoly on predicting the future, me included

Ask yourself this question? Renowned short sellers John Paulson, Doug Kass, Jim Rogers Bill Fleckenstein, and Jim Chanos, among others, are not heavily short the market and some of these men are not short at all, which should speak volumes

Warren Buffett, the only man to ever earn $100 billion dollars investing, recommended investors buy equities 11 months ago around Dow 9,000.

Buffett also said the investor who buys Treasuries is going to lose purchasing power

So, you have two money managers with almost the exact opposite takes on the market.

Could all these men who have made large fortunes investing be wrong and this portfolio manager be right?

Perhaps, but my money is on appropriately priced large cap multinational stocks held for the long term.

Time, as it always does, will tell.

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BillSpetrino
Recently, a portfolio manager went on television and said the Dow would be as low as 6,300 by year end and Dow 4,200 by 2011. Did the market drop after his prediction? In fact, it went up the next two days.His rationale is that the 27 million people out of work aren’t going...
spetrino,dow,prediction
261
2009-43-09
Friday, 09 Oct 2009 08:43 AM
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