Tags: SocGen | yields | stock market | Treasury Bonds

SocGen: Rising Bond Yields Threaten Stock Market Rally

By    |   Monday, 11 November 2013 01:55 PM

Ascending bond yields will keep the Standard & Poor's 500 Index flat "at best" in coming quarters, with the possibility of a short-term correction, say Societe Generale strategists led by Alain Bokobza.

The 10-year Treasury yield hit a seven-week high of 2.75 percent Friday after news of a 204,000 gain in October payrolls.

The SocGen analysts see the Federal Reserve tapering its quantitative easing next year, they say in a report obtained by CNBC.

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"The Fed will eventually bring tapering back on the agenda in 2014. After all, does real GDP growth of 2.8 percent in the last quarter really deserve not only zero rates but also active monetary injection?" they question.

A combination of accelerating economic growth and appreciating interest rates isn't necessarily bad for stocks, the analysts say.

"However, at a time when earnings momentum remains weak and the consensus earnings growth estimate is expected to moderate, rising bond yields could be a catalyst for a U.S. equity market correction," they write.

"Those saying that an economic acceleration would translate into higher returns on equity are very probably wrong."

The analysts expect the 10-year Treasury yield to approach 4 percent by December 2014.

While stocks are near record highs, "doubts abound that this stunning success can continue," writes Barron's Ben Levisohn.

"High-priced growth stocks such as Tesla Motors are selling off, and investors have sought safety in consumer staples and utilities."

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Ascending bond yields will keep the Standard & Poor's 500 Index flat "at best" in coming quarters, with the possibility of a short-term correction, say Societe Generale strategists led by Alain Bokobza.
SocGen,yields,stock market,Treasury Bonds
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Monday, 11 November 2013 01:55 PM
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