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Polling Suggests Midterms Will Be Far Closer Than Predicted

Polling Suggests Midterms Will Be Far Closer Than Predicted
(James Vallee/Dreamstime.com)

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Tuesday, 27 March 2018 05:07 PM Current | Bio | Archive

The latest Fox News poll is bad news for the Democratic Party and their plans for the midterm elections. The poll’s findings show a November election that will be far closer than predicted even a month ago by many political analysts.

Democrats in previous polling had been up by as many as 15 points last October in generic findings. That has now been reduced to an amazing five-point edge, as 46 percent of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their district and 41 percent the Republican.

This is distressing news for the DNC that had high hopes of taking control of the House at the very least. Although it is traditional for the party out of power in midterm elections to win seats in both Houses, the latest results are seen as almost disastrous for any hopes.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw and Democrat Chris Anderson conducted the polling for Fox. Shaw commented, "Just winning the popular national vote is not enough to flip the House. Given the GOP's districting advantages, data from 2012 and 2014 show the Democrats need an edge of at least five points to bring the majority into play."

Anderson was a bit more cautious adding, “I like this question as a gauge of perceptions month to month. But its predictive power seven months from the election is dubious.”

One main reason for Republican optimism is the growing economy. The poll indicated that 40 percent are now confident of the economy as opposed to just 30 percent a year ago. The same results were evident when participants were asked if they were nervous about the economy and 47 percent responded yes, down from 61 percent a year ago.

The poll results were encouraging for Republicans all around. For instance, over 36 percent of voters are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous congressional elections.

The one item in the polls findings that is a glaring negative for Democrats are the percentages concerning optimism with the nation’s financial recovery. Elections are traditionally bad for those out of power when the electorate feels good about the future. Again, 47 percent are nervous today, down from 61 percent in 2016, and a high of 70 percent in 2010.

Fifty-three percent of voters think that their taxes are too high. Again, the passages of the president’s new federal tax law helped him receive his first positive approval rating since taking office.

It would appear in late March the Republicans are taking the initiative. As the pollsters said, it is far too early to see a trend in any direction. But it provides the Republicans plenty of lead time to make positive things happen to entice the electorate.

Dwight L. Schwab, Jr. is an award-winning national political and foreign affairs columnist and published author. He has spent over 35 years in the publishing industry. His long-running articles include many years at Examiner.com and currently Newsblaze.com. Dwight is an author of two highly acclaimed books, "Redistribution of Common Sense - Selected Commentaries on the Obama Administration 2009-2014" and "The Game Changer - America's Most Stunning Election in History." He is a native of Portland, Oregon, a journalism graduate from the University of Oregon, and a resident of the SF Bay Area. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.

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DwightLSchwab
The latest Fox News poll is bad news for the Democratic Party and their plans for the midterm elections. The poll’s findings show a November election that will be far closer than predicted even a month ago by many political analysts.
poll, midterm, election, democrats, republicans
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2018-07-27
Tuesday, 27 March 2018 05:07 PM
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