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Dick Morris: Say No to Kasich, Rubio, Stop a Brokered Convention

Dick Morris: Say No to Kasich, Rubio, Stop a Brokered Convention
 

By    |   Monday, 14 March 2016 12:59 PM

A vote for Kasich or Rubio, in today's political environment, would be a vote for Hillary.  

If either candidate wins in Florida and/or Ohio — and fights on afterwards — it virtually guarantees a brokered convention. And a brokered convention would cause such havoc in the GOP that it would make Hillary's election as president very likely.

You can stop that from happening by NOT voting for either Kasich or Rubio.

Instead, vote for a candidate who can win the convention on the first ballot.

If you don't want Trump, for example, you can vote for Ted Cruz.

Even in Ohio, the latest polling shows Ted Cruz surging to only six points behind Kasich and Trump, who are tied for first place.

Those who want to vote for Kasich in order to defeat Trump in Ohio are misguided.

Cruz has just as good a shot as Kasich at beating Trump.

And, if Kasich does win Ohio, he will stay in the race, constantly splitting the anti-Trump vote and giving Donald the nomination.

Trump has an easy time getting a plurality in a divided field, but has only been able to win a majority on very rare occasions.

With Kasich in the race, Trump will win. With Kasich out, its likely that Cruz will get the nomination.

Why not a brokered convention?

The Republican Party does not have the superstructure to resolve a convention deadlock. There are no more bosses. The state party leaders are largely impotent. The party lacks elder statesmen.

The Bushes are compromised. Romney is too self-interested (that's why he is campaigning for Kasich — to cause a brokered convention that might nominate him).

A second or third or fourth ballot would lead to an endless deadlock that couldn't be broken easily. The fissure would rip the party apart and its impact would be to create such bitterness that it couldn't come together in time to beat Hillary.

A brokered convention would be a disaster. If Kasich and Rubio both lose and drop out of the race, the threat will have passed from our lips. But if they win and stay in the race, we are headed for the rocks.

The irony of the coming primaries in Florida and Ohio is that the only way to stop Trump from getting the nomination is for him to win these two primaries, knocking Rubio and Kasich out of the race.

If Rubio and/or Kasich stays in the race, it will make a Trump victory possibly inevitable.

Here's why:

The bulk of the primaries to select the 1,000 delegates that will remain to be chosen after March 15 (with 1,237 needed to nominate) will be chosen in either winner-take-all or winner-take-most states. In the former, whoever wins a plurality of the votes gets all of the delegates.

In the latter, if a candidate wins a statewide plurality and a plurality in each of the Congressional Districts, he gets all the state's delegates. In either case, you don't need a majority. A plurality is enough.

Trump has an almost impossible time reaching 50 percent of the vote. Only in Mississippi and a handful of other states did he manage the feat. The anti-Trump vote — taken as a unit — would defeat Donald almost every time.

The national polling shows Trump losing to Cruz by 54-40 in a two-way primary.

But if Kasich and/or Rubio remain in the race after March 15th, they will take away enough votes from Cruz to give Trump the plurality. Until now, with proportional representation rules required in all pre-March 15 states, it hasn't mattered much since all the candidates get a proportionate share of the delegares.

But, after March 15, Rubio or Kasich's presence in the race will almost guarantee Trump victories — and all of the delegates in the major remaining states likeCalifornia, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, etc.

If Trump beats Kasich and Rubio in Florida and Ohio — and they drop out — Trump will have to face Cruz one-on-one in the remaining states and he is not likely to be able to win enough to get the nomination.

To be sure, Trump would emerge from March 15th with a lead of about 250 delegates over Cruz, after sweeping the two winner-take-all states.

But Cruz will quickly get the lost delegates back.

The very next week, on March 22, he would likely win Utah and Arizona in a two-way race, giving him back all the 100 delegates he lost in Florida.

So if you want to stop Trump, vote for Cruz.

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A vote for Kasich or Rubio, in today's political environment, would be a vote for Hillary.
john kasich, marco rubio, vote, election, hillary clinton
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Monday, 14 March 2016 12:59 PM
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