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Tags: iowa | virginia | wisconsin | kirkpatrick

The 10 Top US House Seats Most Likely to Flip Red

red wave versus blue wave


By    |   Wednesday, 05 October 2022 12:11 PM EDT

The midterms are a mere month away and Republicans are placing all bets on "Red" for the win in their bid to wrest control of both chambers of Congress away from Democrats.

A party needs 218 seats to control the House and they’re now separated by single digits, 220 Democrats to 212 Republicans, with three seats vacated this year: Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., who died Aug. 30, Charlie Crist, D-Fla., who resigned Sept. 2, and Ted Deutch, D-Fla., who resigned Sept. 30.

And in their bid to take the gavel away from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the GOP is outspending Democrats in at least seven key districts that they were already expected to flip.

Democrats are trying to make abortion, the January 6 riot, and Donald Trump issues, but it’s not working: Real Clear Politics co-founder and president Tom Bevan reported on Oct. 3 that "Monmouth shows a 10-point swing in favor of GOP over the last month."

The Biden administration seems to be doing its level best to help Republicans on its mission beginning with a disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, followed up by staggering inflation, escalating crime, a ludicrous energy policy and an unsecured border.

Here are Newsmax’s top 10 picks, listed in alphabetical order:

Arizona 2nd: This is an open seat vacated by Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat, who on March 12, 2021, announced she would not be seeking re-election.

That prompted seven Republicans to enter the primary: Eli Crane came out ahead and will meet Democrat Tom O’Halleran in November. If ad buys are an indication, Crane is outspending his democratic rival — $4.9 million to O’Halleran’s $3.6 million.

The Republican is making border security and election integrity his priority issues, both of which concern Arizonians given Biden’s unsecured border and questions after the 2020 presidential election.

It appears to be working. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections With Nathan Gonzales, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball now rate this district as leaning Republican.

Arizona 6th: Republican Juan Ciscomani also faced a large slate of opponents in his primary, and will face Democrat Kirsten Engel on Nov. 8.

The disparity in ad buys is even greater here: The GOP has spent $3.6 million to Democrats’ $1.1 million. This seat is seen as either leaning or tilting Republican.

Florida 13th: This one looks ripe for Air Force veteran and Republican Anna Paulina Luna to flip. She challenged incumbent Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist for the seat in 2020, where she snared 47% of the vote.

This year the district is an open seat and her chances of success have skyrocketed, as reflected by both financing and polling.

Ballotpedia reported that Luna received $1.95 million in donations as compared to her Democratic rival’s $1.47 million.

In addition, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Larry Sabato all agree: Florida’s 13th congressional district is likely Republican.

Iowa 3rd: Although Democrat Cindy Axne is running for reelection, the GOP sees this as a winnable race. She’ll be facing off against Republican Zach Nunn next month.

Republicans are slightly outspending Democrats on ad buys: $3.6 million to $3.0 million. The Cook Political Report and Larry Stabato’s Crystal Ball rate this district as leaning Republican, whereas Inside Elections With Nathan Gonzales calls Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District a tossup.

New Jersey 7th: This could be a huge win for the GOP in a deep blue state, matching Republican Thomas Kean Jr. against incumbent Democrat Tom Malinowski.

Kean beat out six other Republicans for the chance to take on a sitting Democrat, and the party is showing its support by outspending Democrats on ad buys by a factor of nearly 3:1 — $3.7 million to $1.3 million.

Oregon 4th: This is admittedly something of a long-shot, but it’s an interesting one for two reasons: one, there is no Democratic incumbent running; and two, the Republican candidate is something of a celebrity — and certainly an international hero.

Democrat Val Hoyle is battling Republican Alek Skarlatos who, along with Spencer Stone and Anthony Sadler, portrayed himself in the 2018 film "The 15:17 to Paris," directed by Clint Eastwood.

The trio of U.S. veterans foiled a 2015 attempted act of terrorism onboard a French passenger train before anyone was injured, and received France's highest decoration, the Chevalier of the Legion of Honour, from French president François Hollande.

The Cook Political Report rates the district leaning Democrat. Nathan Gonzales and Larry Sabato say it’s likely Democrat.

Pennsylvania 7th: Like New Jersey’s 7th, this could be another huge win for the GOP where Republican Lisa Scheller will try to shove Democratic incumbent Rep. Susan Wild off her House seat.

And the GOP believes this is another winnable race, outspending the Democrat on ad buys by nearly $2 million — $7.3 million vs. $5.5 million.

What do the experts say? Although Sabato and Gonzales call PA CD-7 a tossup, Cook Political Report believes it’s leaning Republican.

Texas 15th: Here’s another one that the GOP has a chance of putting in the win column, but to tell the full story we have to go back to 2020.

That year incumbent Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Jr. nearly lost his reelection bid to his Republican challenger, Monica De La Cruz, 50.5 to 47.6%. Gonzalez is not seeking reelection.

This year De La Cruz came back for more and easily knocked off a large slate of fellow Republicans to meet Democrat Michelle Vallejo, who just barely squeaked by Ruben Ramirez in a head-to-head runoff by 0.2%.

The GOP has invested $4.8 million in ad buys for De La Cruz, as opposed to Democrats’ $4.0 million.

Virginia 2nd: This was a district that Democrats flipped in 2018 with the election of Rep. Elaine Luria. Republicans believe it can be picked up again, especially after the 2021 election of GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Luria’s seat is now being challenged by Republican Jennifer Kiggans, who claimed 55.6% of the primary vote against her three GOP opponents in a hard-fought primary.

Kiggans is being heavily outspent by Luria. Nonetheless, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections With Nathan Gonzales, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball call this district a tossup.

Wisconsin 3rd: This is another seat that opened up when Democratic Rep. Ron Kind opted not to seek reelection.

Republican Derrick Van Orden will cross swords with Democrat Brad Pfaff in November. Van Orden trounced his primary opponent, with 65,635 total Republicans voting. Pfaff won his primary by a plurality of 38.9%, with 61,663 Democrats voting.

The GOP is all in on this one. It’s invested $4.6 million in ad buys for Van Orden’s race, as compared to Democrats’ $1.7 million.

Honorable Mention: Virginia 10th: Hung Cao, the Republican nominee for Virginia’s 10th, deserves an honorable mention despite nearly insurmountable odds.

On the minus side, he’s facing an incumbent, Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton. Also, both Cook and Inside Elections rate this district as solidly Democratic, although Sabato gives it a slightly more favorable likely Democratic.

But on the plus side, Cao won the chance to face Wexton by defeating eight other Republicans. He also deserves it for his quick wit.

Cao was asked at a recent debate with Wexton if he believes "that Joe Biden is the duly elected president of the United States." His answer was pure gold.

He replied, "Sir, Joe Biden is the president of the United States. if you don’t believe me, go to your gas pump or go to your grocery stores and that’ll tell you who is."

The crowd loved it.

Michael Dorstewitz is a retired lawyer and has been a frequent contributor to Newsmax. He is also a former U.S. Merchant Marine officer and an enthusiastic Second Amendment supporter. Read Michael Dorstewitz's Reports — More Here.

© 2023 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Republicans are placing all bets on "Red" for the win in their bid to wrest control of both chambers of Congress away from Democrats.
iowa, virginia, wisconsin, kirkpatrick
Wednesday, 05 October 2022 12:11 PM
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