Democrats and their agenda have become so unpopular that pollsters find respondents are reluctant to identify themselves as Democrats, Gabriel S. Joseph III, president of ccAdvertising, tells Newsmax.
“We’re having a difficult time getting people to admit that they are Democrats,” says Joseph, whose company conducts polls for a range of candidates, interest groups, and members of Congress.
“We are getting almost as many people to self-identify as tea party patriots as identify themselves as Democrats,” Joseph says. “The Republican numbers that we’re measuring haven’t been this high since 2004,” when Republicans re-elected President Bush and expanded their control of the House and Senate.
Joseph says a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll showing some gains for Democrats is “biased,” because the front page article only reported on registered voters as opposed to people who say they are likely to vote in November.
In this climate of political upheaval, voters who registered or voted in the last election may not show up this time, and others such as tea party members may not have been registered but are registered now and definitely plan on voting. To allow for the small proportion of Democrats responding, pollsters who focus on registered voters have to make adjustments. Such adjustments significantly affect the results, distorting them, Joseph says.
In contrast, ccAdvertising and others such as Gallup and Rasmussen poll and report on likely voters. Those polls show a rising tide in favor of Republicans.
“The fact that Democrats are not sharing their internal polling with reporters indicates that their results are consistent with the public polls showing them losing big time,” Joseph says.
“What I'm seeing is that the tea party movement is bringing out people who have been disengaged in the past,” Joseph says. “They are people who tend to be over 50. Another thing that we’re seeing is that in 2008, it was the war that was bringing people out to vote, and they were younger and more enthusiastic. In 2010, it’s the economy, and they’re older, more mature, and more engaged.”
Joseph adds, “The tea party movement is real. It’s focusing primarily on economic issues, but it is rolling over into issues involving faith and religious freedom. Not all fiscal conservatives are social conservatives, but all social conservatives also tend to be fiscal conservatives. Our data shows this correlation for the 2010 election.”
In asking whether people have a favorable opinion of President Obama, Joseph finds that his company’s results are 4 to 5 percentage points lower than what many other national polls show. Obama’s approval is “trending in the low 40 percent and high 30 percent,” he notes.
Joseph’s firm only asks if respondents have a favorable opinion of him.
“It’s difficult for people in our culture to say anything against a minority,” Joseph says. “So we don’t even ask do you have an unfavorable opinion. We ask do you have a favorable opinion. We find it helps take away any perceived bias against saying anything negative about America’s first black president.”
Clearly, Republicans will reclaim the House and are in a strong position to take back control of the Senate, Joseph says.
“We are going to see a tidal wave in November,” Joseph says. “Anybody who’s reporting a poll right now not based on likely voters but rather on registered voters is favoring the Democrat candidate and party.”
Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of Newsmax.com. View his previous reports and get his dispatches sent to you free via e-mail. Go here now.
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