A new Quinnipiac poll
released Thursday puts Ben Carson ahead of Donald Trump for the first time in Iowa, showing the retired neurosurgeon ahead by 28-20 percent among likely Iowa GOP Caucus participants.
The numbers are:
- Carson, 28 percent;
- Trump, 20 percent;
- Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 13 percent;
- Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 10 percent;
- Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, 6 percent;
- Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 5 percent;
- Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 3 percent;
- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 2 percent;
- Former Pennsylvania Gov. Rick Santorum, 1 percent;
- Former Virginia Sen. Jim Gilmore and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, below 1 percent.
Just last month, Carson was behind Trump by 27-21 percent in Quinnipiac's Iowa poll. Carson's numbers were up because of female voters, the poll showed, drawing 33 percent among women compared to 13 percent for Trump. Men were divided with 25 percent for Carson and 24 percent for Trump.
Trump, though, topped the poll's "no way" list, of voters who say they would not vote for him, while Carson got the lowest number of people who said they would not pick him:
- Trump: 30 percent;
- Bush, 21 percent;
- Christie, 14 percent;
- Graham, 15 percent;
- Pataki, Paul, and Santorum, 10 percent;
- Kasich and Huckabee, 9 percent;
- Fiorina and Gilmore, 8 percent;
- Cruz, 7 percent;
- Rubio, 5 percent;
- Carson, 4 percent.
Iowa voters also found Carson most trustworthy, by 89 percent, and 84 percent said he shares their values.
"It's Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
"As they've been pondering for six months, many in the political world still are trying to understand Carson's appeal and how someone who seems to be operating outside the traditional news media/political environment is doing so well among the most conservative GOP voters," he continued. "Today's results show his appeal is especially strong among the state's sizeable white, evangelical Christian community, among whom Carson is receiving 36 percent, twice Trump's 17 percent," Brown added.
"Those who know Carson seem to like him. He has an almost unheard of 84 - 10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican Caucus-goers, compared to Trump's 53 - 43 percent rating."
On other issues:
- Trump tops Carson 41 - 12 percent on the economy;
- Trump over Carson 32 - 13 percent on taxes;
- Trump tops Carson 37 - 9 percent on illegal immigration;
- Rubio and Trump are close at 18 - 17 percent, respectively, on foreign policy, with Carson at 9 percent.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 14-20 of 574 Iowa Republican Caucus participants, and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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