Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson holds a 14-point lead over real estate mogul Donald Trump, according to a new Monmouth University poll
of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers.
When Iowa Republicans were asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson topped the list with Donald Trump coming in second — a clear difference from Monmouth's last poll in August where both candidates tied for the top spot at 23 percent.
According to the poll:
- Ben Carson tops the list with 32 percent.
- Donald Trump holding in second with 18 percent.
- Ted Cruz with 10 percent.
- Marco Rubio with 10 percent.
- Jeb Bush with 8 percent.
- Carly Fiorina with 5 percent.
- Rand Paul with 3 percent.
- Mike Huckabee with 2 percent.
- Bobby Jindal with 2 percent.
- John Kasich with 2 percent.
The remaining five candidates tested less than 1 percent.
"Trump's support has eroded in a number of key areas, with the beneficiary being another outside candidate," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
"One question is how secure Carson's new found support really is."
Compared to an August poll, Carson is up by 9 points and holds a lead over Trump among evangelical Christian voters, non-evangelical voters, women and men.
- Among evangelical Christian voters Carson maintains a 36 to 18 percent lead over Trump, compared to a 29 to 23 percent advantage he held in August.
- Among non-evangelical voters, Carson holds a 28 to 19 percent edge compared to an 18 to 24 percent deficit in August.
- Among women, Carson holds a 34 to 17 percent lead over Trump; similar to his 30 to 19 percent advantage in August.
- Among men, Carson also maintains a 31 to 20 percent lead over Trump, which wipes out the 17 to 27 deficit he held in August.
Although the latest Monmouth poll is not the first polling institute to place the real estate mogul in second to Carson, Politico
reports that Trump has been dismissive of any polls
signifying trouble in Iowa.
"I don't believe those polls, by the way, because both of those pollsters don't like me," Trump told the crowd at a Miami campaign event last Friday.
Politico reports that 19 percent of likely caucus-goers
said they are fully decided on their choice which that marks an increase from 12 percent in August.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 22 to 25, 2015 with 400 Iowa voters likely to attend the Republican presidential caucuses in February 2016 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
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