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Fox News Poll: Cruz, Trump Statistically Tied

Fox News Poll: Cruz, Trump Statistically Tied
 

By    |   Wednesday, 23 March 2016 06:52 PM

A new Fox News polls shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz only three points behind GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump nationally, which is within the poll's five-point margin of error.

The poll of likely Republican primary voters:

• Donald Trump: 41 percent
• Ted Cruz: 38 percent
• John Kasich: 17 percent

The poll was conducted March 20-22 and talked to 388 Republican primary voters.

But the poll showed Kasich, whose only hope at getting the nomination would be in a contested convention, has the best chance of beating expected Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Trump would lose to Clinton if the election will held today, according to the poll.

• Kasich 51 pecent/Clinton 40 percent
• Cruz 47 percent/Clinton 44 percent
• Trump 38 percent/Clinton 49 percent

That portion of the poll, also taken March 20-22, talked to 1,016 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percent.

Cruz has been tied or outperforming Clinton in head-to-head matchups in several recent polls while the same polls show Trump would lose to her.

Quinnipiac, CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls conducted in March all show a statistical or near-statistical tie. Only a Bloomberg poll conducted in recent days showed Clinton ahead nine points, which is above the 3.4 percent margin of error.

Cruz has consistently risen in head-to-heads with Clinton since he trailed her by double digits in July.

Meanwhile, all head-to-heads between Trump and Clinton taken during at least part of March show Trump trailing Clinton between five and 18 points, and all are outside the margin of error.

The most recent poll showing Trump ahead is a USA Today/Suffolk University poll from late February where he was ahead by 2 points, inside the poll's 3-point margin of error.

The most recent poll showing Trump beating Clinton outside the margin of error is a November Fox News poll where he bested her by 5 points. The margin of error was 4 points.

It is that poll that Trump still cites when his trailing Clinton in head-to-head polls is mentioned.

Kasich has led Clinton by 3 to 11 points since mid-February, but he already has been mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination on a first convention ballot. He is staying in the race in an apparent bid to take the nomination in a contested convention.


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A new Fox News polls shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz only three points behind GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump nationally, which is within the poll's five-point margin of error. The poll of likely Republican primary voters: • Donald Trump: 41 percent • Ted...
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Wednesday, 23 March 2016 06:52 PM
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