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Three-State Poll: Large Field of Candidates Hurts Rubio, Helps Trump

Three-State Poll: Large Field of Candidates Hurts Rubio, Helps Trump
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By    |   Tuesday, 22 December 2015 10:47 AM

Three new polls of likely Republican voters show the crowded field of candidates is hurting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's run for the GOP nomination, while it is helping Donald Trump remain on top.

Trump is tied with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in South Carolina, reports Politico Florida. Further, he's tied with Rubio in Florida, according to a memo on the polls, commissioned by Associated Industries of Florida, a pro-business lobby that tracks the race for its largely Republican membership.

Winning by the numbers, in South Carolina:
  • Trump and Cruz, tied at 27 percent;
  • Rubio and Dr. Ben Carson, tied at 12 percent and 11 percent each;
  • Bush, 7 percent;
  • Other candidates, 5 percent; 11 percent, undecided
In New Hampshire:
  • Trump, 24 percent;
  • Cruz at 16 percent;
  • Rubio,14 percent;
  • Chris Christie at 13 percent;
  • Bush, 9 percent.
  • Other candidates, 13 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
In Florida:
  • Trump, 29 percent;
  • Cruz 18;
  • Rubio, 17 percent;
  • Bush, 10 percent.
South Carolina favorable ratings:
  • Cruz, 71-17 percent;
  • Rubio, 70-16 percent;
  • Carson, 63-25 percent;
  • Trump, 56-37 percent;
  • Bush, 42-49 percent.
In New Hampshire:
  • Rubio, 69-18 percent;
  • Cruz, 65-19 percent;
  • Christie, 66-22 percent;
  • Carson, 52-32 percent;
  • Trump, 48-45;
  • Bush, 39-48;
In Florida:
  • Rubio, 73-18 percent;
  • Cruz 70-18 percent;
  • Carson 67-21 percent;
  • Trump 61-34 percent;
  • Bush 56-36 percent.
Further, the polls revealed that Trump's image problems are negative, but not as bad as ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's.

"More specifically data from all three states confirm that Sens. Cruz and Rubio find themselves deadlocked in a heated battle for second place, with their image numbers potentially serving as a leading indicator they could become the front runners before too much longer," said AIF Vice-President of Political Operations Ryan Tyson in the memo.

The Florida poll consisted of 800 likely Republican voters, with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points and was conducted for AIF by the Florida firm of Data Targeting.

The New Hampshire survey polled 500 respondents, with an error margin of 4.4 percentage points, and in South Carolina, 600 people were polled, with a 3.9 percent margin of error.

Tyson said that even if a single candidate emerges to Trump, it won't be because of Trump's negatives.

"Either the field will have to shrink and/or a candidate will have to empathize with these real feelings within the Party and rise on their own merits (as Sen. Cruz appears to be doing)," he said.

Further, even though Christie is polling well in New Hampshire, he's being seen as a regional candidate who has been spending a great deal of money there. But in South Carolina, and Florida,  he has not been campaigning as much.

Tyson also called Trump's lead a matter of mathematics more than his prowess, given the size of the slate of candidates.

"Any candidate who is backed by 25 percent of a likely electorate will look 'dominant' when 65 percent of that electorate is split 12 ways and another 10 percent remain undecided," he said.

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Three new polls of likely Republican voters show the crowded field of candidates is hurting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's run for the GOP nomination, while it is helping Donald Trump remain on top.
Three-State Poll, Large Field, Candidates, Rubio, Trump
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2015-47-22
Tuesday, 22 December 2015 10:47 AM
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