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Tags: Trump Administration | Donald Trump | Polls | Shy | Trump | Voters | Election Day

Poll: 'Shy' Trump Voters Unlikely to Materialize on Election Day

Poll: 'Shy' Trump Voters Unlikely to Materialize on Election Day

(AP Images)

By    |   Thursday, 03 November 2016 09:16 AM

Polling "shy" Donald Trump supporters aren't likely to materialize on Election Day, a new study shows.

The survey — conducted both over the phone and online — commissioned by Politico and conducted by Morning Consult, showed only a not-statistically-significant difference in the two approaches on voters' preferences for president.

Overall, Clinton has a 5-point lead among voters interviewed by phone: 52 percent to Trump's 47 percent. In online interviews, Clinton has 51 percent support, while Trump is at 48 percent.

"In the primaries, we conducted a study that sought to get at why Donald Trump was performing better in online surveys than on telephone polls," Morning Consult co-founder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp told Politico.

The new study, conducted Oct. 27-30, "shows that not to be the case overall, although there are likely still small pockets of shy Trump voters."

For example, among voters with a college degree interviewed by phone, Clinton had a 21-point margin, with support at 60 percent compared with 39 percent for Trump, the study showed.

Online, the margin shrunk, with voters with a college degree backing Clinton 53 percent versus 46 percent for Trump.

Among voters in households earning more than $50,000 a year, Clinton leads by 10 points over the phone, 54 percent to 44 percent. But the candidates run neck-and-neck among these voters online, with 50 percent for Trump, and 49 percent for Clinton, the study showed.

"Seeing a measurable difference in those with higher education and higher income is consistent with our study during the primaries," Dropp told Politico.

"These more 'elite' groups seem to be the most apprehensive when it comes to telling others they would vote for Trump. That being said, they do not seem to be affecting overall levels of support."

The so-called shy Trump theory assumes some voters may perceive it is socially undesirable to admit support for the outspoken GOP nominee – a phenomenon similar to that seen in Great Britain during the Brexit vote to leave the European Union.

Trump has even called himself "Mr. Brexit."

 

 

"In other words, people say, 'I'm not going to say who I'm voting for,'" Trump has said, Politico reported. "And then they get it, and I do much better. It's like an amazing effect."

Campaign manager Kellyanne Conway also talked about "undercover voters" during during an interview with a British TV outlet last summer.

Overall results of the survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, and the online and phone results both have margins of error of 3 percentage points.

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Headline
Polling shy Donald Trump supporters aren't likely to materialize on Election Day, a new study shows.
Shy, Trump, Voters, Election Day
441
2016-16-03
Thursday, 03 November 2016 09:16 AM
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