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New Poll: Trump Leads Bush by 2-to-1 Margin

Image: New Poll: Trump Leads Bush by 2-to-1 Margin

By    |   Monday, 03 Aug 2015 12:01 PM

Donald Trump is now leading his nearest rival by a 2-1 margin among GOP voters, according to a new poll.

The Monmouth University poll of Republican voters found that Trump leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 26 percent to 12 percent, respectively.

The poll, released Monday, also found:
  • Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is in third place with 11 percent support;
  • Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are tied for fourth place with 6 percent;
  • Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson is at 5 percent;
  • New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are at 4 percent;
  • Ohio Gov. John Kasich is at 3 percent;
  • Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry get 2 percent;
  • Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore each get 1 percent or less.
Roughly 10 percent of GOP voters are undecided, the poll found.

Trump's support has increased by 13 points since the last poll taken by Monmouth University, released three weeks ago. Walker's support has increased by just 4 points and Bush's has decreased by 3 points.

The support shown for Trump cuts across nearly every demographic group:
  • Ideology: Trump is in the lead among very conservative voters (27 percent compared to 16 percent for Walker), somewhat conservative voters (22 percent compared to 14 percent for Bush), and moderate to liberal Republicans (28 percent compared to 20 percent for Bush).
  • Tea Party: Trump has a double-digit lead among tea party supporters, with 35 percent compared to 15 percent for Walker and 11 percent for Cruz. Non-tea party supporters also prefer Trump, albeit by a narrower margin (20 percent compared to 16 percent for Bush).
  • Age: Trump leads with both over 50s and under 50s. He has 26 percent support among voters age 50 and older compared to 15 percent for Bush and 12 percent for Walker. For those under 50 years old, Trump has 26 percent support compared to 10 percent for Walker and 9 percent for Bush.
  • Gender: Trump is in the lead with both male and female Republicans. He leads among men with 32 percent support compared to 13 percent for Bush and 11 percent for Walker. Among women, he has 20 percent support compared to 12 percent for Walker and 11 percent for Bush.

"Republican support for Donald Trump just continues to grow with no clear sense of who his constituency really is," Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Poll Institute, said in a statement. "This makes it very difficult for his opponents to figure out how to take him on in the upcoming debate."

Trump has also seen an improvement in his favorability ratings, which currently stand at 52 percent favorable compared to 35 percent unfavorable. Three weeks ago, it was 40 percent favorable compared to 41 percent unfavorable.

And before his announcement in June, Monmouth pointed out that his standings here were "significantly negative," with a 20 percent favorability rating compared to 55 percent unfavorable.

The poll also canvassed people's views on the structure of the first debate, which will be hosted by Fox News on Thursday and include only the top 10 candidates according to a national polling average.

Just 23 percent of voters favor the existing "top 10" debate structure. Nearly half of voters (45 percent) prefer a debate structure that would see back-to-back debates and include all candidates with the field randomly split in half. Another 29 percent believe it would be best to put all 17 candidates on stage, the poll found.

These results were taken from Monmouth University poll conducted July 30-Aug. 2 of 1,203 adults, of which 423 identified as Republican or Republican-leaning voters. That sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.

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Donald Trump is now leading his nearest rival among GOP voters by a 2-to-1 margin, according to the latest poll in New Hampshire. The Monmouth University poll of Republican voters shows Trump now leads Jeb Bush, his closest competitor for the 2016 GOP nomination, 26 percent...
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Monday, 03 Aug 2015 12:01 PM
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