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15 Key Geo-Political Economic Trends to Watch

15 Key Geo-Political Economic Trends to Watch
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Tuesday, 17 September 2019 03:10 PM Current | Bio | Archive

In 2019-2020, we are looking at a fast-changing world of trade, technology, security, education, and politics.

There are key trends that are evolving rapidly and governments are having trouble keeping up with the new rules and new paradigms.

Economies can change overnight due to rules, population safety, laws, sovereign risk, conflicts, politics, and even wars.

Here are a few key concepts to ponder and consider as ideas for jobs, new products, new services, investing, and for your children:

  1. Tax Reform Based on Productivity: Tax innovation will continue beyond your imagination. With people working from home, telecommuting, doing business in many states and outside of the U.S., the tax code will be innovated to maximize the health and productivity of the American working family.
  2. Energy Independence Innovation: Technology has made finding and harvesting oil and gas much more accurate and cost-effective everywhere. Large or luxury auto sales will continue regardless of MPG or pollution ratings. Energy independence is now an expanded option in the U.S. and the Americas and the oil problems offshore are not a material threat to the U.S. economy but more a threat to China, India, Africa, and the EU. U.S. energy independence with oil, gas, hydro, solar and nuclear will be plenty to fuel the electric economy, transportation, and electric cars of North American for decades to come as the North American population is only 5% of the global population.
  3. Green Commuting:  More federal and Fortune 500 jobs will be moved outside of costly cities for working mothers, fathers, elderly, and the disabled who can’t commute long distances. People are tired of losing productivity to commuting and will work from home given the option. Thus, less oil and gas is needed due to telecommuting. Lifestyle is becoming more important to working families. Being able to work from home and raise a family could become a civil-rights issue.
  4. Inner City Taxes Are the Kiss of Death to Retirement Savings: Citizens will take necessary steps to avoid progressive taxes or inner-city taxation. People will buy and build right outside of states such as: New York, California, or outside of cities such as Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles or San Francisco. States like Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Wyoming, South Dakota, Alaska and other federal tax-free jurisdictions will gain momentum while acquiring the bulk of the baby boomer retirees who want to stretch their incomes.
  5. Education for Families: People will live where there are the highest quality school districts. Otherwise, parents may: a) home school their kids, b) send their children to private schools, c) use tutors, or d) use online study.
  6. Commercial Buildings: More and more commercial sites will be converted to family housing in small cities. Malls may be converted to restaurants and stores that provide more gathering activities for families.
  7. Globally EurAsian Diversity: EurAsia represents over 5 billion people and 100+ nations from Iceland west to the Philippines. The demographics of fast growing regions such as India, Arabia, China and Indonesia/Malaysia should continue to drive up global prosperity for the next 40 years. Global poverty has been greatly decreased according to the World Bank. “Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty.” More college grads in the U.S. may leave and work offshore than ever before. More EurAsians will be relocating to North America from India, China, Russia, Arabia, Philippines, and the EU while U.S. citizens will also become expatriots, as more than ever work abroad.
  8. Brick and Mortar Education Decline: Colleges and universities may crumble in size or fail unless value is provided. There is an ever expanding number of free options: college courses, MOOCS (Massive Courses), open courses, free online diplomas, free or almost free degree options and more. These last 5 years may be the easiest in 40 years to obtain admission into a graduate school for law or business due to declining interest and costs and greater e-learning opportunities.
  9. Strong Dollar and Markets: The strong dollar and U.S. stock market have fueled major spending. Cruise lines, airlines, and travel related companies will do great for another year. Lower taxes, low interest rates, low inflation, and cheap energy are contributing to short-term economic power, building, buying and hiring.
  10. Security Changes: More cities and businesses will ramp up security and risk protection and backup systems. Conventional security and conventional policing is changing toward technology quickly. Look for more cameras, more drones, more robots, more tracking, more surveillance, and more uses of stun or paralyzing technology. Sadly, drones are now used for anonymous terror and bombings which creates higher demands for drone busting systems.
  11. Branchless Banking: In 2015, I predicted a shift to Cyber Cashless Exchanges that are powered by big tech: AAAFEG & P etc. - Apple or Amazon (a- coin), Alibaba (b-coin) eBay (e-coin), Facebook (F Coin) Google (g-coin) and PayPal (p-coin), and other related companies. It's also possible big players like Visa, Amex, Discover, and Schwab will do deals with companies like Amazon and Apple to provide branchless banking worldwide. While bank branches may seem obsolete, any bank can expand services to include: Insurance, Investing, Bill Pay, Lottery, Testing, Notary, Title Services, and have computers that may provide an array of services for a fee.
  12. Pollution Politics:  Since the U.S. is only 4-5% of the global population with a massive land area, the U.S. has been able to clean the air and protect water supplies. While inner-cities in the U.S. haven't done enough to plant trees and contain debris, there has been great progress in the last 50 years. Other countries from around the world will begin to demand pollution and waste control in their nations.
  13. Outsourcing Nations Will Expand Out of China: The U.S. and the EU will begin doing more manufacturing at home, in cheaper domestic state jurisdictions, or with AI and robots. With the elimination of NAFTA, the U.S. will soon do more effective business in neighboring nations. Other nations in Asia will undercut China for manufacturing and labor in the regions of: Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, parts of Africa, and other. Competition will reduce global poverty but force countries like China to focus more on domestic sustainability.
  14. Government Regulatory and Foreign Policy Innovation: Trump will bring another 5 years of innovation and success to U.S. government policy. The country has transitioned from a “Hope and Change” feebleness to a strong “Innovation and Success” philosophy. In just 3 years, NAFTA has been fixed and remodeled, NATO has been repaired, US Corporate Taxes becoming competitive for the first time, TPP repudiated, working family taxation has been improved.
  15. Political Extremism of Civil Servants: After a 2-year, $40 million investigation of an incoming president that led to no evidence, the politicization of the U.S. government has been exposed. The use of fake evidence and wiretaps by government officials to attack political opponents was generally not allowed. However, in the last 10 years, the theory of “Deep State” bureaucrats has gone from a conspiracy to proven reality that threatens the peaceful transfer of power in the U.S. and all nations.

George Mentz JD MBA CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ® is a licensed attorney and CEO of GAFM ® global education, which is an ISO 29990 Certified professional development company operating in over 50 nations. Mentz is an award winning author and advisory board member to several companies around the world in education, charities, and crypto currency.

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GeorgeMentz
Economies can change overnight due to rules, population safety, laws, sovereign risk, conflicts, politics, and even wars.
geo, political, economic, trends
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2019-10-17
Tuesday, 17 September 2019 03:10 PM
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