If you turn on the news, you now hear left leaning New York media such as CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, and even NPR/PBS saying Trump could win 2024. There is a reason that they are now concerned that Trump may be victorious. While left leaning media pundits think that Trump only has 45% national support, the number 44% is, in fact, higher than his 2016 Election Day poll numbers.
Trump won 32 states in a landslide against Hillary Clinton with horrible national poll numbers. That is because national polls include California and New York voters, which are virtually irrelevant in the strategy of winning a national presidential election.
With Trump now having a reasonable lock on Texas and Florida, and with the new electoral college vote allocations, Trump can win five times easier in 2024 than he did in 2016. Not only that, but Trump’s primary opponent only has 40% favorability.
The Polls of 2016 Said Hillary Would WIN BIG !
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump won the presidency with a whopping 304 electoral votes while he had lost in all of the national polls by 3-5%. For example:
- RealClearPolitics (RCP) National Poll Average On Election Day 2016 showed Hillary Clinton leading by around 3.2 percentage points. Clinton's average was around 46.8%, while Trump's average was around 43.6%.
- final forecast gave Clinton a lead of about 3.6 percentage points, with Clinton at 48.5% and Trump at 44.9%.
- The New York Times Upshot/Siena College Poll: This poll had Clinton leading Trump by about 3 points nationally, Clinton at 45% Trump at 42%
- ABC News/Washington Post Poll: This poll showed Clinton with a 4-point lead over Trump, with Clinton at 47% and Trump at 43%.
- NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll: This poll indicated a 6-point lead for Clinton, with Clinton at 44% and Trump at 38%.
- New York Times Said in 2016 – Hillary has a 91% chance of winning.
The 5 Key 2024 Polling Takeaways Are:
- Trumps Winning National Poll Threshold - If Trump is polling anything higher than 43% against his opponent in national polls, he will probably win the electoral college. Presently, the vast majority of Americans 64% do not like the direction of the country or this economy.
- States May Tighten Up Deadlines after COVID - Trump only lost to Biden by 44,000 votes in 3 states in 2020. While Trump won big on election day in 2020, Democrats were able to count COVID & late mailed ballots for days after the election to flip 5 battle ground states after election day was over.
- Updated Integrity Laws Favor Trump - With new laws and regulations in various states, the late ballots, unverified ballots, or fake ballots in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and other states will be more difficult to count after election day is over. To put it into sports parlance, states are less likely to allow anyone to shoot a ball after the game buzzer.
- Libertarian State Party Support May Support Trump – The Libertarian Party in some states has agreed to endorse republicans who agree with the libertarian platform. Since Trump since essentially supports most all libertarian key platform stances, he could receive more of these those votes. The Libertarian Party has voted on this issue already in some states.
- Trump’s Minority Support - Since 20% of Black Men supported Trump in 2020, and about 1 million Hispanics voters across America moved to Trump in 2020, Trump has much greater support from minorities than Bush or Romney or than he did in 2016. With new high-profile Congressman such as Byron Donalds and Anna Paulina Luna who support Trump, Republicans seem to be outshining Democrats with freshman VIP Celebrities. Moreover, Cornel West’s name on the Democrat ticket could create a problem for the leading Democrat.
In the end, Trump is the most “Battle Tested” leader in U.S. history, and can only serve one more presidential term. With potential Vice Presidential picks of Trump such as: Gov. Kriti Noem, Byron Donalds, Ron DeSantis or Ted Cruz, Trump’s likeability has been moving up every day in spite of the frivolous lawsuits being filed against him.
Overall, there is just no way that the Supreme Court would allow Russian style-election interference in the USA using fake frivolous lawsuits against Trump that are financed by anti-American activists, national socialists, and even internationally nefarious actors.
Americans all know that what Trump did pales in comparison to what the Clinton team did with denying the election and what the fraudsters did with the fake Russian evidence attempting to overthrow Trump’s government. With each occasional anti-Trump RINO (Republican In Name Only), there seems to be 2 or 3 new Democrats willing to cross the aisle and vote for the populist pro-worker Trump.
In contrast to 2016, Florida, Texas, Ohio and Iowa are now leaning solidly to Trump. Rather than spending too much money and time on Florida, Ohio and Iowa, Trump and Democrats may now be laser focused on winning: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona and Nevada. While Georgia and North Carolina are important, they will likely go Republican in 2024 with good candidates where Republicans vote early and can double confirm their votes have been received and counted.
Again, with polling where it is presently, Trump could take between 290 and 350 electoral votes to win in a landslide while taking: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Minnesota, Michigan and even Virginia.
Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® is an international lawyer, speaker, educator, tax-economist, and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a ESQ accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under CHEA ACBSP and ISO 21001 standards. Mentz is also an award winning author and graduate law professor of wealth management for a top U.S. law school.
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