For years conventional wisdom has been that gold moves inversely to the dollar, because the precious metal is priced in dollars. But that doesn't exactly get it right, according to a new study from the World Gold Council
First, the dollar has more impact on the precious metal when the currency is falling, according to the report. "The relationship between gold and the dollar is asymmetrical. . . . Historically, when the dollar falls, gold has gone up 14.9 percent. When the dollar rises, gold has fallen 6.5 percent," the study states.
For example from early 2014 to March 2015, the dollar soared 20 percent, while gold slipped just 1.2 percent.
Moreover, "the dollar's infl¬uence on gold has softened, as gold demand moves East and the world moves toward a multi-currency system," the study says. "Since 2000, the dollar's share of global reserves has fallen from 61 percent to 55 percent."
As for Asia's growing importance, China and India rank first and second, respectively, for gold demand among the world's countries.
"While the fact that the gold price is quoted in dollars gets a lot of attention, its relevance is overstated," Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research at the World Gold Council, wrote in the report.
In addition, gold's correlation to equities and commodities has been lower than average in periods of a rising dollar.
Gold hit a four-month low of $1,142.92 last Tuesday, but that doesn't dull its long-term attractiveness, according to Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) Bank. Indeed, it already has rebounded more than 5 percent.
So what's going to push it up further?
First, there's the growth of Asia's middle class, ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan and commodity strategist Victor Thianpitiya write in an article for Barron's
"The income effect implies that consumer purchasing power increases as real wages rise, and as such, the demand for gold will increase as more people can afford to buy it."
Then there's central bank demand, they explain. "Over the next decade, emerging market central banks will need to hold a larger stock of physical gold in their vaults to shore up confidence in the newly floating exchange rates."
So where exactly is gold headed?
"Under our central case, gold prices are likely to rise gradually, eventually breaking through the $2,000 level within the next decade," Hogan and Thianpitiya say. And they see $2,400 in 2030.
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