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Citi's Buiter: Fed Hikes Rates If Clinton Wins, Cuts If Trump Prevails

Image: Citi's Buiter: Fed Hikes Rates If Clinton Wins, Cuts If Trump Prevails

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By    |   Tuesday, 16 Aug 2016 06:03 AM


The Federal Reserve would likely slash interest rates if Donald Trump is elected president, Citigroup Chief Economist Willem Buiter.

"Our current expectation is that we will get one rate increase this year. I would make that contingent on who wins the election myself," Buiter told CNBC.

"It is my personal view that we only get a rate increase — a necessary condition is that Mrs. Clinton is the next president. My view, if Mr. Trump is the next president, the next move by the Fed will be a rate cut," he said.

A Trump presidency would force the Fed to anticipate "the high risk and possibly the reality" of a trade conflict, as well as the "massive, adverse supply shock" to the labor market caused by the Republican nominee's proposed immigration policies, Buiter said.

Trump has said he will deport millions of Mexican immigrants and impose a ban on Muslims entering the United States, CNBC explained.

The Fed hasn’t raised interest rates since a quarter-point hike from nearly zero in December.

 

"With President Trump, there is the near certainty of trade wars, and with President Clinton there's the high risk of trade wars, and neither would be good for the U.S. or for the global economy," he said.

He called such campaign rhetoric "very dangerous and indeed irresponsible."

But more voters with a stake in the stock market say Trump would be better as president for their portfolios than Hillary Clinton, with about one in four saying they’ll alter their asset mix if the Republican is elected and a similar share saying they’d do so if the Democrat wins, Bloomberg reported.


A Bloomberg/Morning Consult national poll on investment, tax and economic issues shows voters with money in the market pick Trump over Clinton, 50 percent to 33 percent, as the person they think will be better for their portfolio. Those with more than $50,000 invested answer the question almost identically as smaller investors.
 

Partisanship is a driving force for their choices. Nearly eight in 10 Republicans say Trump would be better for their holdings, while about six in 10 Democrats say Clinton would. Independent voters are twice as likely to pick Trump as better for their portfolios.


 

 

 

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The Federal Reserve would likely slash interest rates if Donald Trump is elected president, Citigroup Chief Economist Willem Buiter.
citigroup, willem buiter, donald trump, hillary clinton
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2016-03-16
Tuesday, 16 Aug 2016 06:03 AM
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