Crispin Odey, who made money for a second straight month by sticking to bearish equity bets, said the chance of a market crash is rising as growth slows and the Federal Reserve normalizes interest rates.
The credit cycle boosted by loose monetary policy has peaked and there’s a widespread slowdown in the auto, commodity, industrial and retail sectors, Odey wrote in a letter to investors. Unlike previous dips since the financial crisis, central banks aren’t responding by printing more money.
“This time they are doing the reverse,” which is likely to exacerbate the negative trend, the London-based hedge fund manager wrote. “All this sits very uncomfortably with the fun being felt in the stock markets. When I look at the move up since Trump’s election as president, I detect the walk of a drunken man."
A spokesman for Odey Asset Management, which manages $6 billion, declined to comment.
Odey, whose fund lost half its value last year, has been a critic of central bank policies since the financial crisis. Last month, he warned that traders betting on rising markets could face troubles during the summer, while in May he told investors to watch out for a sudden market collapse following the exhaustion of credit. In October, the money manager said U.K. stocks could slump by 80 percent because of a potential recession and higher inflation.
Focusing on U.K. retailers, the fund manager said the pound’s drop is "dangerous" for the companies as British shoppers move online faster than their peers in the U.S. and the rest of Europe. His Odey European Inc. fund, which gained 1.8 percent in June, made money on its short bets including Debenhams Plc last month, according to the newsletter.
“The chances of car crashes everywhere are rising," according to Odey. “Enjoy the hot summer," he said, repeating a similar statement last month.
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