The recent strength of the U.S. economy and the recent weakness of oil prices will soon reverse, Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, told Newsmax TV.
The economy grew 3.9 percent in the third quarter, and U.S. oil prices settled at a four-year low of $74.09 a barrel Tuesday on the Nymex.
"The U.S. economy is headed to a recession, which means we're going to get more QE [quantitative easing], not a rate hike; the dollar is going to turn around; and oil prices are headed back higher," Schiff told "America's Forum" show on Newsmax TV.
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A weak dollar pushes oil higher because the commodity is priced in dollars. The greenback hit a seven-year high against the yen and a two-year peak against the euro earlier this month.
"All the money printing from the Fed is going to help stimulate the global economy and that will feed the demand for oil worldwide," Schiff said.
The Federal Reserve is completing its third round of quantitative easing this month. Most economists forecast it will begin raising interest rates around mid-2015. The Fed's federal funds rate target has stood at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.
As for oil's recent drop, "what's really going on is the global economic slowdown, the relative strength of the dollar and the belief that the dollar is going to keep rising," Schiff said. "That's what's driving oil prices lower."
The eurozone economy grow only 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the second, and Japan's economy shrank 1.6 percent annualized in the third quarter.
Oil's weakness will help American consumers by pushing down gasoline prices, Schiff said.
The average national price for regular gas stands at $2.81 Tuesday, down from $3.06 a month ago and $3.28 a year ago, according to AAA.
"It's a bit of a relief that's probably welcome because the price of everything else is going up, even though the government doesn't want to acknowledge that," Schiff said. The consumer price index climbed 1.7 percent in the 12 months through October.
"But there is a downside," Schiff said. That's the impact on the U.S. energy industry, which has recently experienced a "boom," he notes. U.S. oil production recently hit its highest level in at least 31 years amid the shale revolution.
"It [energy] has been one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise a dismal economic landscape, and oil prices at $60 a barrel, even where they are now, is not good news for the U.S. oil industry," Schiff said.
"You would have to look for some cutbacks in production and some layoffs in those sectors, which would provide some downward pressure on the economy as well," he said.
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