Tags: Trump Administration | Democrats 2016 | Donald Trump | GOP2016 | Hillary Clinton | donald trump | hillary clinton

I Think Trump Will Win in a Landslide

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Monday, 24 October 2016 07:38 AM Current | Bio | Archive

 

Professor Helmut Norpoth from Stony Brook University (SUNY) appeared on “Fox & Friends” with Tucker Carlson, and explained his prediction that Donald Trump will win the election.

He uses both a “primary model” showing the candidates relative strength in the primary, and a “swing of the pendulum” model reflecting the fact that voters prefer a change of political parties when a president has been in office for two terms.

Although the professor’s models predict future events, I agree that Trump will win.

He might even win in a landslide.

Then again, Hillary might win.

This presidential election cycle is unlike any other in modern times.

On matters of policy, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are far apart. Mr. Trump works selling things in the private sector, while Mrs. Clinton works selling government influence.

Both have different views as to how to run an election. Fraud is illegal in the private sector, but apparently business-as-usual in the public sector. Emails from Wiki Leaks allege that the Clinton campaign is engaged in a massive vote fraud effort.

Voter fraud has worked in big elections and little ones. I recall Walter Cronkite’s comments about the voting coming out of the South Side of Chicago during the Kennedy-Nixon 1960 election. The Dems have perfected their ballot-stuffing strategy since then with seemingly the acquiescence of the Republicans.

The primary election results and evidence I have concluded from my own analysis support the predictions of Professor Northrup’s “primary model.” Mr. Trump’s supporters are more motivated than Mrs. Clinton’s backers.

In the primaries, the GOP had about a 60% increase in primary voters; around 86% went to Trump, Cruz, and Carson -- anti-establishment candidates all; Mr. Trump alone got more primary votes than any Republican in history. That powerful result sent the Republican Establishment into the first stage of grief. Many have not moved on yet.

The Dems had about 21% less primary voter turnout. If Mrs. Clinton and the DNC did not rig the primary election (as the Wiki Leaks emails apparently prove), then Bernie Sanders would have won. Even to the Dems, Mrs. Clinton is not a compelling candidate.

The voters view the mainstream media as having the same level of credibility as Congress. At about 11%. Effectively, the drum beat of the mainstream media is being discounted rather dramatically by the potential voters who think more highly of roaches than journalists.

Then consider who is the audience or readers of the mainstream media. Not the millennials nor Generation X. And as to the boomers, Mrs. Clinton is not generating any excitement or motivation to come out and vote.

The Dems think Trump is a low life. But they also see Mrs. Clinton as suffering from severe ethical and legal deficiencies. They don’t want to vote for Mr. Trump but find voting for Mrs. Clinton troubling. Many of the Democratic boomers are sitting this one out.

However, the primary voting unquestionably demonstrates that Trump supporters are want to come out and vote for him and against the political establishment.

If the Dems cannot front-load the election vote prior to November 7, then all bets are off for Mrs. Clinton on November 8.

Unfortunately, Professor Northrup’s prediction models do not consider the potential of this massive coordinated national effort to steal the election.

Certainly, as disclosed in the leaked emails and in video tapes, the scale and audacity of the Clinton Campaign efforts are unprecedented so how would any model take this factor into account?

Albert Gore made quite a sink about this issue not too long ago. And even President Obama is on record complaining about voter fraud.

I’m convinced that if it were not for Wiki Leaks and the email disclosures, then Mr. Trump would not be in a competitive position. It is not easy taking on the Democratic and Republican Establishment, the mainstream media, Wall Street, and all the other parasites that live off of the federal government’s largesse. Only the voters want to end the status quo.

Mrs. Clinton is avoiding any real policy contest and relies on running a campaign of personal attack by creating otherwise non-existent or irrelevant issues. The essence of propaganda. Then again, I do not discount the power of propaganda.

To the Clinton believers, Wiki Leaks is an arm of the Russian government and, therefore, the emails, the thousands of them, don't exist.

However, only 20% of the potential voters are loyal to either of the Establishment Parties. The other 80% have a different political reality.

There are behavior factors that are at work this election that were lesser factors in prior elections. Human behavior is difficult to quantify as human’s are predictably irrational in many ways. Why would anybody vote for Mrs. Clinton when she promises to raise their taxes?

Literally, 50% of the potential voters in this election cycle did not vote in the 1990s. There is no past history to draw on to predict how they will react under the circumstances of this 2016 election.

The financial markets are in an asset value bubble. By November 1, the new Obamacare premium bills will come out. There is a full-fledged war in the Middle-East, and threats of war in Eastern Europe and in the South China Sea.

I don’t foresee that there will be anything happening in the economy or in the foreign policy arena that could favor Mrs. Clinton. Quite the contrary.

Professor Norpoth has some nifty models that could be explained as a matter of coincidence rather than accurately quantifying the underlying cause and effect of factors that impact presidential elections.

However, the models Professor Norpoth uses validly recognize the consequences of the factors that somehow have impacted previous elections. His election models predict what will happen while not having to quantify why.

Mr. Trump’s supporters, and for that matter the greater mass of Bernie Sander's supporters, will never become either Dem or GOP party loyalist. These supporters, in their own ways, are both part of the “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore” crowd.

Mr. Trump’s election will be the victory long sought by the voters in retaking power back from the utterly corrupt ruling political establishment class, their crony partners, and their media servants.

Despite who wins, on November 9 I will be off to the office and going to work just like I do every other day.

Denis Kleinfeld is known as a strategic tax and wealth protection lawyer, widely published author and creative teacher. To read more of his articles, CLICK HERE NOW.

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Kleinfeld
Despite who wins, on November 9 I will be off to the office and going to work just like I do every other day.
donald trump, hillary clinton, election, president
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2016-38-24
Monday, 24 October 2016 07:38 AM
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