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Tags: Currency | war | trade | investment

BofA: Currency War Means Trouble for Global Trade, Investment

By    |   Thursday, 05 February 2015 10:17 AM

Central banks around the world are creating a currency war through interest rate cuts, generating volatility that could be harmful for international trade and investment.

A total of 15 central banks have cut rates so far this year, Stephen Cohen, chief investment strategist for BlackRock international fixed income, told The Wall Street Journal.

Currency volatility has soared to its highest non-crisis level for the last 20 years, according to currency strategists David Woo and Vadim Iaralov of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the paper reports.

"There is a growing consensus in the market that an unspoken currency war has broken out. For many countries facing zero interest rates and binding fiscal constraints, the only policy tool left at their disposal to stimulate growth is a weaker exchange rate," they say.

The increased volatility raises the risk of international trade and investment transactions. "This will likely exact a toll on global trade and capital flows," Woo and Iaralov say.

The dollar has soared to multi-year highs against a range of currencies in recent weeks, including an 11-year peak against the euro and a seven-year zenith against the yen.

Many experts expect the greenback to keep rising. The euro traded at $1.1418 Wednesday afternoon, and Craig Johnson, senior technical research strategist at Piper Jaffray, says it could drop to $1. "Parity is in the future for the euro," he told CNBC and Yahoo Finance's Talking Numbers.

"It's in everybody's best interest to see that currency [the euro] cheaper, so they can improve their exports. And it's ultimately positive for the entire globe," he said.

The euro touched a record low of $0.8252 in October 2000. It hasn't traded below $1 since December 2002. The euro began trading in January 1999.

"Since about 2003, we've been making a big distributional top" for the euro, Johnson said. "We broke through key support at about $1.20. The next real support comes in around basically $1.05 to $1.10."

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Finance
Central banks around the world are creating a currency war through interest rate cuts, generating volatility that could be harmful for international trade and investment.
Currency, war, trade, investment
324
2015-17-05
Thursday, 05 February 2015 10:17 AM
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