Tags: iran | nuclear | inspections

Iran Will Wait Out Inspections

By    |   Wednesday, 15 Apr 2015 07:50 AM

The Obama-brokered deal with Iran leaves the rogue nation with a weapons-possible plan in tact; it only has to wait out monitoring and begin anew. Moreover, many questions remain unanswered in the ill-advised deal.

Iran, according to the agreement reached in Lausanne between Tehran and the P5+1 nation coalition, has agreed to reduce its centrifuges from about 19,000 to 6,104, with a maximum of 5,060 centrifuges active simultaneously.

Iran will enrich uranium at Natanz only. Natanz is currently operating about 15,320 centrifuges. Also outlined in the deal: about 1,000 more advanced centrifuges at Natanz will be removed. Iran will place many advanced centrifuges in IAEA monitored storage for 10 years.

But between visits? Iran will simply put them back into operation.

It is not known how and when Iran will cease to produce nuclear centrifuges; the tentative agreement does not specify. But the rogue nation's technological capabilities — including deadly weapons know-how — cannot be pulled back and it is unlikely that Tehran will cease its push for weapons capabilities.

Teheran could build centrifuges or nuclear power plants in Shiite-controlled areas outside its borders of course.  Consider Yemen, where Tehran will build a power plant, or Iraq, where in Qom, Iran builds a new large central operating system.

About 10,000 kilograms of uranium enriched to a low rate of isotopes is already been produced in Iran. Dangerous times.

Iran has also agreed to reduce the amount to enriched uranium stored in the country to 300 pounds, an amount that is not sufficient to produce a nuclear bomb. But enriched uranium can always be stored in friendly countries.

The material left in Iran could lead to the production of several atomic bombs, and many feel it is only a matter of time.

Added to all these concerns, the agreement allows the research and experimentation of advanced nuclear centrifuges in Iran.

The Fordow location, secret for many years and fortified inside a mountain, is even more advanced than the plant at Natanz. Today it houses 2,710 centrifuges of first generation centrifuges, of which 696 are operating.

According to the agreement, Iran will turn Fordow in a research center. The agreement states that Fordow will not enrich uranium for at least 15 years.

What after that? In 15 years Iran could restart Fordow.

The Arak facility will also be monitored.

There is no mention of the plutonium produced by the agreement. Will it remain in Iran? It is unlikely that Tehran will share the plutonium in countries and organizations not friendly with the Shiite regime.

It seems clear that Tehran wants to buy time, and then come out with a new system of nuclear enrichment once the P5+1 is no longer able to oppose.

With economic sanctions lifted, Iran will be able to make greater investments in its military including missiles, which will be will be able to carry the nuclear threat when the
Lausanne agreement expires or will be terminated by either party.

The connection that the agreement established between loosening of sanctions and the first inspection will allow Tehran to move any clandestine materials from site to site in the desert.

Israeli vehement opposition to the agreement is warranted. But it is unlikely to see strong support for Jerusalem in the U.S., with the exception of that coming from Republicans, to block or modify the troublesome agreement.

Giancarlo Elia Valori is professor of economics and international politics at Peking University, and is president of "La Centrale Finanziaria Generale Spa."


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The Obama-brokered deal with Iran leaves the rogue nation with a weapons-possible plan in tact; it only has to wait out monitoring and begin anew. Moreover, many questions remain unanswered in the ill-advised deal.
iran, nuclear, inspections
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2015-50-15
Wednesday, 15 Apr 2015 07:50 AM
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