Senior Obama administration officials have conceded that the value of sanctions relief to Iran from last month’s Geneva nuclear accord will far exceed the initial estimate of $6 billion to $7 billion, Israeli sources told Haaretz
The new estimate is closer to Israel’s original projection that Iran would receive at least $20 billion worth of relief from the deal it agreed to with six international powers including the United States.
“Economics is a matter of expectations,” Israeli security sources said. “The Iranian stock exchange is already rising significantly and many countries are standing in line to renew economic ties with Iran based on what was already agreed in Geneva.”
China has quickly moved to renew contracts to develop the Iranian oil industry worth around $9 billion,and several German companies have also expressed interest in deals with Tehran, the Israeli sources noted.
The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
(FDD) has also found weaknesses in the White House’s previous estimate that Tehran gained $500 million worth of relief for the Iranian auto industry from the Geneva deal.
In a report published this week, the FDD concluded that the White House estimate failed to account for an additional $2.5 billion in economic activity that sanctions relief would provide Iran in the next six months, according to Haaretz.
The United States had originally intended to permit only the unfreezing of about $3 billion to $4 billion in Iranian financial assets. But during the course of negotiations in Geneva, the international powers backtracked and approved a much more generous easing of sanctions.
Iran has now been granted sanctions relief in areas including commerce in gold, petrochemicals, cars, and replacement parts for civilian aircraft.
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