Some would say that the 2008 Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses solved nothing. Others would argue that this week’s votes essentially determined who the presidential nominees will be this fall.
I think the ramifications and results of Super Tuesday are somewhat inconclusive and difficult to translate, but the lessons we learned are clear.
First, we now know for sure that Sen. Barack Obama can over take Sen. Hillary Clinton and win it all. In the states that favored Clinton (with the exception of Arkansas) the results were extremely close and competitive. Obama’s victories however were for the most part, decisive and emphatic.
This shows me that Clinton is winning more because of name recognition in the states where her family has history, whereas Obama is taking states because of his platform, personality, and plans. Obviously any political party worth its salt would choose the better candidate with less name recognition to represent them if they truly wanted change in Washington.
Second, we are now seeing the impact of John Edwards’ absence from the race. For the first time during the primary season, white males favored Obama over Clinton. These voters who were supporting Edwards have migrated to the Obama campaign, proving that Obama can truly garner votes of all kinds.
The landscape on the Democratic side has changed and it’s because Obama and his strong contingent of supporters are running a whole new kind of campaign. He is surging at the appropriate time, and by next week's primaries there is a strong probability that he will overtake Clinton and never relinquish the lead. Once Hispanic voters know more about the Senator from Illinois, and he continues to refine his message and strengthen his debating skills, he could win the nomination in a decisive manner.
On the Republican side, the race became clearer this week and we learned several things. First, in spite of the Dobson's, Limbaugh's, and Coulter’s of the world, Sen. John McCain will win the Republican nomination. Although he may be forced to select Gov. Mike Huckabee as his running mate — McCain needs help in the Southern conservative states where Huckabee did so well — the days of the “Maverick McCain” are back.
The senator from Arizona is doing things his way and not backing down from his stance on the war and in his support of the President. He will win the nominee running away, and the only remaining questions are by how much he will win and who he will pick to be his running mate.
Second, we learned that Gov. Mitt Romney is done and will never be able to win a national election. Because of his religious affiliation, constant flip flopping, and poor decisions, Romney — despite all his money — never got over the hump. Whether he is willing to admit it or not, his campaign is over and he needs to start figuring out new ways to be influential, supportive and important in the coming months, years, and decades.
As the primaries and caucuses wind down and we get closer and closer to knowing the final slate, we will quickly see people pick sides and throw their support around.
Despite what you are hearing now, expect the conservative right to support John McCain whole-heartedly, especially if he selects Huckabee as his running mate. Dr. Dobson and others who claim they would sit out the election or actually jump sides and support a Democrat if McCain wins, are merely bluffing.
They are hoping their strong words could somehow help Huckabee or Romney make a comeback. But neither a comeback nor abstention will happen. McCain has won, and once the far right comes to terms with this, they will support him. Because, as governor and former Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour said on Super Tuesday, “Considering the opposition, we must (join together to support McCain).” When it comes down to it, conservatives will realize their choice: Obama and his liberal voting record or Clinton and her husband. The choice for conservatives will be easy.
The lessons learned from Super Tuesday were clear; the complete ramifications though, are yet to be determined.
Stay tuned.
www.armstrongwilliams.com
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