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Clinton Stock Market Predicts Nov. 8 Landslide Over Trump

Image: Clinton Stock Market Predicts Nov. 8 Landslide Over Trump

The contenders. (Getty Images)

By    |   Tuesday, 30 Aug 2016 09:39 AM

Hillary Clinton is not only favored by the stock market to be the next president, Wall Street is inclined toward a landslide win over Donald Trump, analysts are telling The Wall Street Journal's Market Watch and other news media.

David Woo, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, pointed to the S&P 500, which has risen more than four percent since July 5, which marked the start of the 90-trading-day countdown to the presidential election.

"During years when presidential candidates won by a margin of more than 80 percent of Electoral College votes, the S&P 500 posted average returns of 8.4 percent in the 90 days leading up to the election …," said Sue Change of Market Watch. "The last time stocks outperformed the current rally at the halfway point was when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide against Walter Mondale in 1984."

Sam Stovall, a stock market expert at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told CNN that he examined data for every presidential election going back to 1944 (Roosevelt vs. Dewey). If stocks rose in price from July 31 to October 31, the party that currently controlled the White House won the election 82 percent of the time.

Market Watch reported that the S&P 500 hit a record high of 2,193.81 on Aug. 15 and is poised to extend its rally to six straight months.

"The market appears to have decided not only that (Hillary) Clinton will win, but that it won't be close," Woo told Market Watch. "Investors like landslide victories."

Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads Trump by 4.3 percent in the latest Real Clear Politics average of eight presidential general election polls. She is up by as much as seven percent in the Monmouth and Quinnipiac polls and as little as one point in the Gravis poll.

Woo pointed to the Iowa Electronic Markets, an indicator that is giving Clinton an 80 percent chance at beating Trump.

"To us, this implies that the market is expecting Hillary Clinton to either maintain or increase her already sizeable lead over Donald Trump in the opinion polls," Woo said.

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Hillary Clinton is not only favored by the stock market to be the next president, Wall Street is inclined toward a landslide win over Donald Trump, analysts are telling The Wall Street Journal's Market Watch and other news media.
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Tuesday, 30 Aug 2016 09:39 AM
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