The future of the Russian military and defense industry is not bright, despite glowing press reports about its weapons and personnel in action.
Recent events have revealed critical and glaring defects in Moscow’s military might. For example, news reports about a Russian naval squadron’s visit in Venezuela would lead one to think that the Cold War is back. That hardly is the case.
Russia dispatched four ships to participate in a joint exercise with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's military. Two are combat vessels: the nuclear-powered cruiser Peter the Great and the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko. The other two vessels were described vaguely as support ships. Three Venezuelan frigates joined the Russian ships for the exercises, dubbed "Venrus 2008," according to Russian TV.
The four-ship squadron is barely a fraction of the nearly 1,000-ship force Russia could muster two decades ago. In addition, one of the two support ships is a seagoing tug, dispatched with the naval force to tow either of the two warships in case they break down.
The Russian fear of breakdowns of its top-drawer warships is not unfounded. Peter the Great just returned from three years of extensive repairs to its nuclear reactor. Poorly trained draftee sailors made mistakes in maintaining the nuclear reactor, and the warship barely escaped total destruction, according to reports published in Jane's.
A fatal accident that killed 20 aboard one of Russia's most advanced submarines overshadowed the deployment to Venezuela. The submarine was being field tested in the Sea of Japan before it became an official part of the navy, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
Sources inside the Amur Shipbuilding Factory confirmed that the submarine Nerpa was built there. Construction of the Akula II class attack submarine was started in 1991 but suspended for several years because of a shortage of funding.
An investigation found that the release of Freon gas following the activation of the fire-extinguishing system killed the victims, including 17 civilian members of the shipyard crew aboard for the field testing.
The Russian air force is fairing no better than its navy. Its recent performance over Georgia displayed major lapses in training and poor performance of weapons in combat.
The Russian air force lost a top-of-the-line Backfire bomber to the paltry air defense tiny Georgia set up. In addition, several Russian strike aircraft were lost to ground fire, some of which might have been from Russian army troops who had no communications with the air force.
And a Russian military aviation icon is on the verge of collapse: The MiG design bureau cranked out advanced jet fighters that confronted the West at every turn in events for more than 60 years. From the skies over Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf, Yugoslavia, and around the world, MiGs squared off against their western counterparts in duels to the death.
Today, MiG remains alive only because of Moscow’s good graces. A recent audit revealed that the bureau is in debt for roughly $1.5 billion, according to reported figures. It also needed income to pay creditors. The collapse of a key export deal and a lack of domestic orders caused the problems.
MiG’s difficulties began in 2006 with what appeared to be a significant sale of 28 Fulcrum jet fighters to Algeria, a deal worth $3.1 billion.
However, that sale collapsed with 15 of the aircraft in service. The Algerian government refused to take delivery of the remainder and insisted on returning those Fulcrums it had received. Algeria claimed that the aircraft had substandard components, an allegation that Russia denies.
The failure of the transaction resulted in a near cutoff of MiG’s revenue stream. The company, which employs 25,000, now appears to have only a single significant contract with the Russian defense ministry: an upgrade program for the MiG-31 Foxhound.
The only other contract is for India. MiG is manufacturing an initial batch of 16 Fulcrum carrier variants for the Indian navy as part of an agreement covering India’s purchase of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier.
Even the Russian air force has shunned MiG. Col. Gen. Alexander Zelin, who heads the Russian air force, has stated that he would like to buy more advanced aircraft from Sukhoi, the MiG's main competitor but has made no similar comment about any purchase from MiG.
MiG is not alone in its difficulties. Many other Russian defense companies are struggling with debt because of a lack of orders and problems with securing and servicing financing. And the main users of Russian weapons are not buying anymore.
China, once a main source of income, is now a competitor. China is even manufacturing jet fighters on the export market based on designs copied from Russia. China has manufactured more than 2,000 J-7 fighters, identical in almost every aspect to the MiG-21. But Beijing refuses to pay any royalties to Moscow or MiG for the design.
China also has begun manufacturing the J-11B, an identical copy of the advanced Sukhoi SU-27 Flanker. The J-11B production began virtually the same day that China canceled orders for more Russian SU-27 jets.
The collapse of world oil prices, the withdrawal of western financial support following the Georgia war, and lack of export customers have put the Russian defense industry literally in the tank. Once a mighty and powerful competitor, the Russian defense industry is falling quickly into disarray and soon may be crushed under the weight of economics, time, and aging designs.
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