Tags: poll | Ernst | Braley | Iowa

Poll: Joni Ernst 1 Point Ahead of Bruce Braley in Iowa

By    |   Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 10:22 PM

In one of the most competitive Senate races this election season, Iowa Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst holds a 1 point lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the latest Des Moines Register poll released on Saturday.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters found Ernst at 47 percent to Braley's 46 percent. Late last month, the Republican was ahead by 6 points.

"Braley's catching up," said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 3-8.

But Ernst is also higher, up from 44 percent in last month's survey. The recent polling has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Now, only 4 percent of those surveyed said they were undecided. That compared with 12 percent in the last poll.

"I'd like to hear a little more answers from them being blunt and telling it straight," one uncommitted voter, Debbie McDaniel, 64, of Davenport, told the Register, "but these darn TV ads and a recording when you pick up the phone — I'm past done with that."

The latest results come 23 days before the Nov. 4 election.

Heading into the stretch, Ernst will most likely remind voters of the GOP's interest in national security and link her opponent to President Barack Obama, while Braley will focus on voter turnout, said University of Northern Iowa associate professor Christopher Larimer.

"For Ernst, she has to keep momentum going, which will include continuing to tie Braley to Obama, Obamacare, a sagging economy, and, importantly, a weak foreign policy," he told the Register.

"The key group for Braley," he continued, "are folks who turned out in 2008 and 2012 and can be identified as likely Democratic voters, but are less likely to vote in a midterm.

"That's where the differential will be," Larimer said.


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In one of the most competitive Senate races this election season, Iowa Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst holds a 1 point lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley in the latest Des Moines Register poll released on Saturday. The survey of 1,000 likely voters found Ernst at 47...
poll, Ernst, Braley, Iowa
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2014-22-11
Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 10:22 PM
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