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Sabato's Crystal Ball: Clinton's Lead 'Much More Precarious'

Image: Sabato's Crystal Ball: Clinton's Lead 'Much More Precarious'

Hillary Clinton (Getty Images)

By    |   Monday, 19 Sep 2016 10:57 PM

A new analysis from the University of Virginia Center for Politics shows a shift in the U.S. electoral map that helps Donald Trump and makes Hillary Clinton's position "much more precarious" than it was six months ago.

According to "Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball," third-party candidates have gained momentum in swing states, Clinton has suffered from a disastrous few weeks on the campaign trail, and Trump has benefited from a new campaign team that has kept the GOP nominee more on message.

"[Clinton's] position is much more precarious than it was previously," Geoffrey Skelley of the Center for Politics told an NBC affiliate in Virginia.

"Donald Trump has surged in some swing states and at the same time importantly, really, Hillary Clinton has fallen off more perhaps than Trump has even surged. So that's another explanation to why the race has tightened so much. She has lost some support."

The "Crystal Ball" changes to its Electoral College map include:

  • Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina move from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss-up."
  • Ohio and Iowa move from "Leans Democratic" to "Leans Republican."
  • Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin move from "Likely Democratic" to "Leans Democratic."
  • Missouri moves from "Likely Republican" to "Safe Republican."

"Despite all of these ratings changes toward Trump, an Electoral College majority still at least leans toward Clinton — but just 272 electoral votes, a bare majority," the analysis noted.

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A new analysis from the University of Virginia Center for Politics shows a shift in the U.S. electoral map that helps Donald Trump and makes Hillary Clinton's position "much more precarious" than it was six months ago.
poll, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, campaign, election
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2016-57-19
Monday, 19 Sep 2016 10:57 PM
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