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Politico: No Hard Evidence Trump Is Expanding GOP

Image: Politico: No Hard Evidence Trump Is Expanding GOP
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By    |   Tuesday, 17 May 2016 11:11 AM

Donald Trump has claimed his candidacy for president has brought new voters in to the Republican Party, but an analysis by Politico seems to refute that idea.

Trump has said "millions and millions" of new voters are joining the Republican Party, and it's "the biggest thing happening in politics," reports Politico, which analyzed statistics that showed the GOP have turned out to their state primaries in record numbers, but those voters are not new to the party.

The website's analysis of GOP voting statistics "confirms what my suspicion has been along," said Alex Lundry, the 2012 Mitt Romney campaign's director of data science.

Lundy told Politico Trump appears to have brought new voters into primaries, but "those people are people that are already going to vote Republican in the general election."

The analysis also pointed to the turnout in Iowa's Republican caucus which jumped 50 percent, from 121,000 to almost 187,000. However, 95 percent of those voters had voted in at least one of the past four presidential elections. While 80 percent had voted in at least three of the last four.

In South Carolina, Politico found that 8.4 percent of the voters were voting for the first time, but 25 percent were just voting in a primary for the first time.

In Florida, the analysis found that turnout in the primary increased by 40 percent, but only 6 percent of those had not voted in 2014 or 2012.

University of Florida political professor Daniel Smith said Trump has brought in new voters, but not enough to be consequential in a general election. From Trump's perspective, "I look at the glass as half full. But it's a small glass," Smith said, reports Politico.

According to The Wall Street Journal, new data shows Republican voter turnout is up by 64 percent since 2012, with the participation increasing in recent months as voters in big states head to the polls.

Matt Dallek, assistant professor of political management in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University, told The Daily Caller the increase in voter turnout likely includes people who want to vote against Trump.

The presumptive GOP nominee got 11 million total votes in primaries, but in a general election, that's about 1 in 4 of the number of votes he would need, reports Politico.

Drew DeSilver of the Pew Research Center told Politico, "There is definitely not a correlation between turnout in the primaries and success in the general election."

However, a Bloomberg report came up with a different conclusion, noting in elections that had competitive primaries on both sides, such as in 1992, 2000, and 2008, the party with the most primary voters won the general election.

At the time of the Bloomberg report, Trump had received 25 million primary votes, and Hillary Clinton had received 22 million.

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Donald Trump has claimed his candidacy for president has brought new voters in to the Republican Party, but an analysis by Politico seems to refute that idea.
Politico, Analysis, Trump, GOP, Expansion, New Voters
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2016-11-17
Tuesday, 17 May 2016 11:11 AM
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