Tags: Trump Administration | Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton | Nate Silver | Clinton | Trump | Election

Nate Silver: Clinton has 79 Percent Chance of Winning Election

 

By    |   Wednesday, 29 Jun 2016 12:18 PM

Nate Silver predicted Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the presidency, compared to Donald Trump's 20 percent, the founder of the sports and politics analysis website FiveThirtyEight said on ABC's "Good Morning America" show Wednesday.

"We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver said on the show. "She's taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll."

If Clinton were to lose, she would be the first candidate since former Democratic Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis to "to blow a lead this large." The Duke lost to George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Silver, who correctly predicted the results in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 election and all 50 states in 2012, doesn't think Trump, the GOP nominee, has enough appeal outside of his core supporters.

"Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign," Silver said. "He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary, a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent."

Silver also defended his August GOP primary prediction, which gave Trump a 2 percent chance of securing the Republican nomination.

"That wasn't based on looking at polls," Silver said. "Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is, don't try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public."

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Nate Silver predicted Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the presidency, compared to Donald Trump's 20 percent, the founder of the sports and politics analysis website FiveThirtyEight said on ABC's "Good Morning America" show Wednesday. ...
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2016-18-29
Wednesday, 29 Jun 2016 12:18 PM
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