Tags: | midterms | GOP | Orman | Roberts

Morning Joe's Willie Geist: NBC Poll Doesn't Point to GOP Wave

By    |   Monday, 06 Oct 2014 12:52 PM

Independent Greg Orman is leading incumbent Kansas Republican Sen. Pat Roberts by 10 points a month ahead of November's midterm election, a new NBC News/Marist poll reveals, in results that MSNBC correspondent Willie Geist said Monday spells trouble for Republicans this fall.

The margin of error in the Kansas poll, taken between Sept. 27 and Oct. 1, is at +/- 3.9 percentage points, putting Orman at a clear advantage over Roberts.

The race to control the Senate is tight, and should Orman win and decide to caucus with Democrats, a win over Roberts could add a Democratic vote to a state that traditionally leans conservative.

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The NBC/Marist poll also showed North Carolina incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan ahead of Republican challenger Thom Tillis by a slight lead, and Iowa's race between Democrat Bruce Braley and popular Republican challenger Joni Ernst in a dead heat.

"We're talking about this Republican wave that we keep hearing about," said MSNBC's Willie Geist on "Morning Joe" on Monday. "If those three races go the other way, forget about a Republican wave."

He pointed out that in all three red-leaning states, President Barack Obama's job approval rating is hovering at just under 40 percent.

And while some Democratic operatives have voiced concerns that Obama's approval rating could prove toxic for their candidates, "perhaps he's not the albatross for these candidates as he's supposed to be," said Geist. "The Republicans are all attacking Democrats as being tools of the Obama administration, and they (Democrats) are all hanging on in those states."

Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said Roberts is "in a great deal of trouble" when it comes to being re-elected.

"He’s got high negatives, his intensity of support is low, (and) he’s losing Independents by more than two to one," said Miringoff. "His to-do list is rather large in the remaining time before Election Day.”

According to a summary by RealClearPolitics, Orman is ahead of Roberts by 5.2 points overall.

Meanwhile, the North Carolina segment of the poll puts Hagan at a 44 percent to 40 percent lead over Tillis. In Iowa, Ernst and Braley are in a dead heat, at 46 percent for Ernst and 44 percent for Braley.

The poll also shows that Kansas Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is in dead heat with Democratic challenger Paul Davis, by 43 percent to 44 percent. Iowa Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, however, is ahead of Democratic nominee Jack Hatch by 22 points.

In Kansas, just 37 percent of the voters said they have a positive opinion on Roberts, who is campaigning for his fourth term in office, compared with 47 percent with a negative opinion. Meanwhile, 45 percent of the voters said they have a positive opinion of Orman.

The poll also shows Orman has cross-party appeal, revealing that 77 percent of the Democrats polled and 16 percent of Republicans say they are voting for the Independent candidate.

Orman is also taking the independent vote by more than two to one, reports NBC.

Orman may face commitment problems though. Just 48 percent of the likely voters said they are firmly committed to voting for him, and 28 percent said they either haven't heard of him or are not sure who he is.

In North Carolina, Hagan carried the female vote by 19 points and enjoys a three-to-one nod from single women. She is also carrying the African-American vote, the poll said, by an overwhelming 84 percent. Tillis lead among whites, by 52 to 31 percent.

The margin of error n the North Carolina poll is +/- 3.8 percentage points, and it is +/- 3.5 percentage points for the Iowa poll.


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Independent Greg Orman is leading Kansas Republican Sen. Pat Roberts by 10 points a month ahead of the midterm election, a new NBC News/Marist poll reveals, in results that MSNBC correspondent Willie Geist said spells trouble for Republicans.
midterms, GOP, Orman, Roberts
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2014-52-06
Monday, 06 Oct 2014 12:52 PM
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