Tags: | Barack Obama | midterm elections | Obama | approval rating

Analyst: GOP Will Win Senate, Retain House

By    |   Tuesday, 09 Sep 2014 12:24 PM

Dragged down by an unpopular President Barack Obama, Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate and be unable to gain control of the House in the November midterm elections.

Stuart Rothenberg of Rothenberg Political Report told Roll Call, "After looking at recent national, state, and congressional survey data and comparing this election cycle to previous ones, I am currently expecting a sizable Republican Senate wave. As long as his [Obama's] approval sits in the 40 percent range, the signs are ominous for Democrats.

"With the president looking weaker and the news getting worse, Democratic candidates in difficult and competitive districts are likely to have a truly burdensome albatross around their necks."

Rothenberg predicts that Republicans will take over control of the Senate with a net gain of five to eight seats, and need only six to wrest the Senate from the Democrats.

In the House, Rothenberg said on his website, "Republicans are well-positioned to retain their House majority, holding 211 seats currently rated safe and favored to win 11 more. For the Democrats to gain control of the chamber, they would need to win every seat where they have even a slight edge, plus about 20 more."

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds similar results — Obama is dragging down Democrat chances of retaining control of the Senate because of his 42-51 percent disapproval rating, with just 43 percent calling him a strong leader and 52 percent rating his presidency as more of a failure than a success.

Even 25 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of liberals agreed.

The most recent FiveThirtyEight poll shows Republican chances on a growth trend with a 65.1 percent shot at capturing the Senate, up from 63.5 percent just a week ago.

Voter turnout looks to favor Republicans, with The Post reporting that 79 percent of Republicans indicate they are "absolutely certain" to vote, as compared to only 66 percent of Democrats.

"Given the president’s standing, the public’s disappointment with the direction of the country, the makeup of the midterm electorate, and the ’14 Senate map, I expect a strong breeze at the back of the GOP this year," Rothenberg told Roll Call.

"And if there is a strong breeze, most of the races now regarded as competitive will fall one way — toward Republicans."


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Dragged down by an unpopular President Barack Obama, Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate and be unable to gain control of the House in the November midterm elections.
midterm elections, Obama, approval rating
384
2014-24-09
Tuesday, 09 Sep 2014 12:24 PM
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