Tags: | Trump Administration | GOP | 2016 presidential race

Experts Still See Demographics 'Problem' for GOP in 2016

By    |   Monday, 10 Nov 2014 09:24 AM

Republicans made significant gains in last week's midterm elections, including among young and minority voters, but that may not mean they have a guaranteed road to the White House in 2016, political experts believe.

"It was an excellent election night," Republican pollster Glen Bolger told The New York Times. "But it doesn't solve our problem in demographics in presidential years."

The GOP has lost the popular vote in the past five out of six presidential elections, but snagged a significant midterm victory by making gains among young, nonwhite voters, as well as rural white voters. However, Democrats could bring back those voters, who led to President Barack Obama's back-to-back wins in 2008 and 2012 to hold the White House, The Times reports.

And while many key Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, insist that the party lost the midterms because of low voter turnout, not as a protest against the party's overall message, the results in many states showed otherwise.

For example, in Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst scored a nine-point win after sweeping many white, rural voters in the eastern part of the state, which typically leans Democrat.

But even so, Democrats could have taken many key races in states like Colorado and North Carolina if more young or diverse voters had turned out in the numbers like they did in 2012, reports The Times, and the voters could be even more diverse as the numbers of nonwhite voters grow.

In the last presidential election, Obama faced difficulty with white voters in the South and Appalachia, but still ran strong with white voters outside those areas. Meanwhile, Republican challenger Mitt Romney was strong among white voters, but not among the minority and young voters who delivered Obama his win.

However, the next Republican nominee may pull out a win by winning back some of the voters who went Democrat in the rural northern states while holding onto gains in the south.

Analysts believe that presumptive Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton or another candidate will be able to maintain the support Obama pulled. In the midterms, strong Democrat candidates in the south such as Louisiana's Mary  Landrieu and Kentucky's Alison Lundergan Grimes scored well among white voters.

Republicans could also fail to take advantage of Obama's declining popularity ratings, reports The Times, as some analysts believe Democrats can't attract nonwhite or young voters without Obama running for office. However, traditionally, such voters come out at lower rates for midterm elections than for the presidential ballot.
 

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Republicans made significant gains in last week's midterm elections, including among young and minority voters, but that may not mean they have a guaranteed road to the White House in 2016, political experts believe.
GOP, 2016 presidential race
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2014-24-10
Monday, 10 Nov 2014 09:24 AM
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