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Trump Gained Ground in Final Weeks of Election, Researchers Find

Image: Trump Gained Ground in Final Weeks of Election, Researchers Find

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By    |   Tuesday, 20 Dec 2016 07:30 PM

Voters shifted to Donald Trump in the final weeks of the campaign, report two faculty members at the University of Pennsylvania's Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics.

A panel survey overseen by UPenn professors Diana Mutz and Daniel Hopkins showed that 0.9 percent of 1,075 American adults polled moved their support from Hillary Clinton to Trump after Oct. 24, the final survey of the 2016 election. That final number was recorded in a post-election poll from Nov. 28 to Dec. 7.

A panel survey follows the same representative panel of individuals over a period of years, which allows researchers to record how specific Americans' attitudes shift over time.

"Although that 0.9 percent isn't a lot, those changes are especially influential, since they simultaneously reduce Clinton's tally and add to Trump's," writes Hopkins on the website fivethirtyeight.com. "If there were a comparable swing in the national electorate, 1.2 million votes would move to Trump."

Among previously undecided voters and third-party backers, Trump also gained ground with 3.1 percent moving to the Republican candidate.

"Clinton also saw 3.1 percent of her October supporters defecting to third-party candidates or becoming undecided," writes Hopkins. "Trump lost just 1.7 percent."

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Voters shifted to Donald Trump in the final weeks of the campaign, report two faculty members at the University of Pennsylvania's Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics.
donald trump, switch, last minute, election
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2016-30-20
Tuesday, 20 Dec 2016 07:30 PM
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