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NY Times: Dems Have 60 Percent Chance to Take Senate Majority

Image: NY Times: Dems Have 60 Percent Chance to Take Senate Majority

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By    |   Wednesday, 24 Aug 2016 12:14 PM

Democrats have a 60 percent chance of reclaiming the majority in the Senate, according to The New York Times' election forecast.

The Times centers on three key components:

  • Democrats fare better in presidential election years vs. midterms.
  • Democrats are defending just 10 seats compared to 24 for Republicans.
  • Most of the Republican incumbents were buoyed by an anti-Obama wave in 2010.

Based on fundamental math alone, Democrats would have a 50-50 chance to retake the Senate, given the amount of seats Republicans need to defend. Recent polling puts that number at 60 percent, according to the Times.

Further, of the 10 seats Democrats are defending, seven are guaranteed locks and two more are polling heavily in their favor. Only Nevada, where Harry Reid is retiring, is competitive for Republicans.

The Times reports that Republicans' greatest vulnerability lies with single-term senators who rode a wave into the upper house six years ago:

  • Ron Johnson: Wisconsin
  • Kelly Ayotte: New Hampshire
  • Rob Portman: Ohio
  • Mark Kirk: Illinois
  • Pat Toomey: Pennsylvania
  • Marco Rubio: Florida
  • Roy Blunt: Missouri

Further, with open seats due to retirement of Republicans in Indiana and North Carolina that could go for Democrats and put John McCain in a tight spot on Arizona. The Times projects Democrats are poised for at least a tie, which with Hillary Clinton's projected victory, would give the Senate a tiebreaker to the Democratic vice president.

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Politics
Democrats have a 60 percent chance of reclaiming the majority in the Senate, according to The New York Times' election forecast.
democrats, senate, majority
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2016-14-24
Wednesday, 24 Aug 2016 12:14 PM
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