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MSNBC's Chuck Todd: CNN Poll With Trump in Lead Has 'Weighting' Problem

By    |   Tuesday, 06 Sep 2016 08:05 PM

A new CNN poll released Tuesday showing Donald Trump with a 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton suffered from a "weighting" problem that skewed the results, according to MSNBC anchor Chuck Todd.

In a commentary on his "MTP Daily" show, Todd argued the survey "assumes a lot of things."

"It assumes an electorate that we've never seen before – whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample," he said. "In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

"So when you re-weight the actual CNN numbers to match how the electorate looked in 2012, this same poll would actually have shown Clinton up 4 points," he said.

"The point is your numbers may not be wrong but your weighting may be. Your assumptions. So the CNN folks assumed an electorate that is not an impossible scenario for Trump. But it would be an historic shift if it occurred."

Republican pollster Glenn Bolger, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, added the CNN poll showed "if you look at … party identification, it's a plus-4 Republican sample. I'd love it… —if the electorate were plus-4 Republican. But it's just not. And it's not going to be on Election Day."

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A new CNN poll released Tuesday showing Donald Trump with a 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton suffered from a "weighting" problem that skewed the results, according to MSNBC anchor Chuck Todd.
chuck todd, cnn, poll, donald trump, lead, weighting, problem
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2016-05-06
Tuesday, 06 Sep 2016 08:05 PM
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