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Bloomberg Poll: Trump, Clinton Tied as First Debate Looms

Image: Bloomberg Poll: Trump, Clinton Tied as First Debate Looms

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By    |   Monday, 26 Sep 2016 07:31 AM

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied as they head into Monday night's debate at Hofstra University in New York, while Trump pulls out by 2 percentage points with the two third-party candidates included, according to a Bloomberg Politics national poll released early Monday morning.

According to the poll of 1,002 likely voters, which carried a margin of error of 3.1 points:

Two-way race:

  • Clinton and Trump: 46 points each.

Four-way race:

  • Trump, 43 percent;
  • Clinton, 41 percent;
  • Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, 8 percent;
  • Green Party nominee Jill Stein, 4 percent.

Clinton is also facing higher expectations heading into Monday night's debate, which is expected to reach viewership levels comparable to a Super Bowl, with 49 percent saying they think the Democratic nominee will outperform Trump, and 39 percent saying the Republican nominee will defeat Clinton.

Clinton's numbers, though, have dropped steadily since August in the Bloomberg poll, and Iowa-based pollster Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey, said that's because women and young voters are starting to back away from the former secretary of state.

In August, Clinton was ahead of Trump by 6 points in the two-way race and had a 4-point lead when Johnson and Stein were included, and in June, she was ahead of Trump by 12 points, even when Johnson was included in the poll.

But since then, her demographic numbers have taken a serious drop.

  • Women: Clinton, 52-39 percent. In June, she led by 26 points.
  • Voters under 35: Clinton, 50-40 percent. In August, she led by 29 points.

The poll was conducted last week, from Wednesday through Sunday, after Clinton had been panned by many for calling at least half of Trump's supporters "deplorables" and after she nearly collapsed during a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony, without having disclosed she'd been diagnosed with pneumonia two days before.

Meanwhile, Selzer said it will be "hard for either candidate to criticize the other too harshly on this form of integrity" when it comes to their numbers on trustworthiness.

  • 7 in 10 rate Clinton's truthfulness as "just fair" or "poor;"
  • 6 in 10 say the same of Trump.

Voters also said, by 69 percent, that Trump should release his tax returns. He was also rated better than Clinton on physical health, and half of the voters polled said they were not bothered that Clinton did not disclose her illness.

In other breakdowns:

  • Suburban women, Clinton, 55-38 percent;
  • Non-white voters, Clinton, 67-23 percent;
  • Independent voters, Clinton, 45-40 percent;
  • White voters, Trump, 55-38 percent;
  • Protestants, Trump, 54-39 percent;
  • Voters without a college degree, Trump, 50-42 percent;
  • Voters in the South, Trump, 54-38 percent.

Trump's supporters were also more enthusiastic about their candidate, at 65-12 percent.

Click here for a complete list of questions and the poll methodology.

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Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied as they head into Monday night's debate at Hofstra University in New York, while Trump pulls out by 2 percentage points with the two third-party candidates included...
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2016-31-26
Monday, 26 Sep 2016 07:31 AM
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