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Sanders Needs to Win 5 Super Tuesday States, or No Path to Nomination

Image: Sanders Needs to Win 5 Super Tuesday States, or No Path to Nomination
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By    |   Monday, 29 Feb 2016 07:32 AM

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont needs to win at least five Super Tuesday states to keep up his pace in the delegate race, and although the senator's campaign is fighting hard to prove that Tuesday isn't his final stand, Politico suggests the results on March 1 could close off his path to the nomination.

After Hillary Clinton's 6-point win in Nevada and the embarrassing 48-point win in South Carolina on Saturday, Sanders is struggling, but is still attempting to regain momentum.

According to Politico, Sanders' best-case scenario on Super Tuesday looks like this:

"Of the 11 states holding Democratic contests, Sanders wins Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma — four states where he's invested in television advertising.

Then he blows out Clinton in Vermont, and keeps it close in Virginia. As long as Clinton's margins of victory in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas — states with sizable African-American populations — aren't too overwhelming, he could march onto a trio of friendlier contests the following weekend with a credible case to make."

"There were two ways to win the nomination," said Sanders' chief strategist Tad Devine.

"The very quick route of winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and then taking a shot at South Carolina, which was always going to be hard, [or], when that option didn't become desirable, we decided we're going to take a different route that goes all the way through California."

On "Meet the Press" Sunday Sanders said that "not only are we fighting for Super Tuesday, we're looking ahead to California, the largest state of all, New York state, we think we're going to do well in Michigan."

However, all those scenarios rely on Sanders winning a bigger portion of the African-American voter — a core component of the Democratic base and the majority of the Democratic electorate in Tuesday's southern states.

"He spent a decent amount of time trying, in South Carolina, to win African-American voters, so it's really an indication that he's not going to do well with African-American voters anywhere else," said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray of Saturday's results.

"All the polling is indicating that the rest of the South is probably going to look like South Carolina. The states where I see Sanders having any possibility of doing well are states where the Democratic primary electorate is at least 70 percent white, if not more."

Regardless of the results on Super Tuesday, Devine tells Politico that Sanders' campaign is planned to be well-funded enough to stay in the race for months after March 1.

And, when Sanders is asked of his plans to drop out of the race, his campaign aides respond, "Why would he, they ask, when there are only two candidates in the race and Clinton hasn't yet reached 50 percent of the delegates."

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Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont needs to win at least five Super Tuesday states to keep up his pace in the delegate race...
Bernie Sanders, Super Tuesday, Democrats, Hillary
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2016-32-29
Monday, 29 Feb 2016 07:32 AM
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