Dem Strategist Sosnik: Our Party Is in Decline

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Friday, 10 May 2013 01:40 PM

By Dan Weil

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While most of the media's attention has focused on problems within the Republican Party, Democrats have issues of their own, says Doug Sosnik, a veteran political strategist for the blue party.

"Obama's successful 2008 campaign and his 2012 re-election masks a party that is also in decline and one that is at considerable risk when Obama is no longer on the scene," he writes in a memo obtained by Politico.

Since Obama ascended to the presidency, Democrats have lost nine governorships, 56 House seats, and two Senate seats, Sosnik points out. "During his presidency, the party’s favorability has declined 15 points."

Sosnik lists 10 specific problems for the Democratic Party:

• Obama’s personal favorability doesn’t translate to Democrats broadly;

• Obama’s failure to build the party for the long term;

• "Declining favorability." The party's support has dipped among all voters since Obama took office;

• 2010 state losses created an enduring grassroots deficit;

• Declining Democratic Party self-identification among younger voters;

• The party cannot count on the same levels of African-American support without Obama on the ballot;

• Declining Democratic ID among younger Hispanic Americans;

• Asian-American support for Democrats in recent elections exceeds their party identification;

• Mid-term turnout favors Republicans. Historically, the voters who are most likely to vote Democrat are the least likely to vote in a mid-term election;

• Thin presidential bench beyond Hillary Clinton and uncertainty that Democrats can replicate Obama turnout levels.

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