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Doug Schoen: Hillary the Shaky Favorite

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By    |   Thursday, 17 Mar 2016 10:29 AM

Hillary Clinton is the current favorite to win her party's presidential nod and the general election, but a shrinking base of her support and voters' clamor for change in Washington "could be her undoing," according to an adviser and pollster for her husband, President Bill Clinton.

In a commentary for The Wall Street Journal, Douglas Schoen argues Clinton's front-running status is "due in no small part to the deep divisions in the Republican Party and the strong possibility, even likelihood, that the GOP will nominate Donald Trump."

"Whatever else one might say about Donald Trump, he offers an alluring (if vague) promise to turn Washington on its head," Schoen writes.

"For better or worse — and, in this election, it's probably for worse — Mrs. Clinton has played an integral role in building the Washington that Americans so deeply resent."

"If the desire for change remains the dominant theme this year, Hillary Clinton doesn't fit the bill," he adds. "Donald Trump does. For all of her advantages, this core weakness could be her undoing come November."

According to Schoen, there are troubling cracks in her prospects also with a "diminishing" portion of her Democratic base, including black voters, white men, independents and young people.

The "enthusiasm gap" is also ominous, he writes, noting a 25 percent decline in Democratic primary turnout this year compared with GOP turnout that's at its highest levels since 1980.

"Looking beyond the primaries to the general election, the danger signs for Mrs. Clinton's candidacy remain," he writes, citing a WSJ/NBC News poll that finds 51 percent of registered voters have "more negative than positive feelings" about her, and that 56 percent can't see themselves supporting her in a general election.

Schoen writes in this regard, however, Trump "a non-politician" has "super high negative ratings of his own — higher than Mrs. Clinton's."

"She beats him in head-to-head matchups now, but given how unpredictable Mr. Trump's fortunes have been in the primary season, there is no telling how a general-election campaign might play out," Schoen writes.

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Hillary Clinton is the current favorite to win her party's presidential nod and the general election, but a shrinking base of her support and voters' clamor for change in Washington "could be her undoing"...
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2016-29-17
Thursday, 17 Mar 2016 10:29 AM
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