Tags: Trump Administration | Donald Trump | GOP2016 | Ted Cruz | trump | cruz | 2016

Trump Moving Closer to the Finish Line

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Friday, 22 Jan 2016 02:44 PM Current | Bio | Archive

With the Iowa caucus just a week away, this is the last stand for the Republican establishment. In fact, it’s the last stand for the party as we have known it for the last 50 years.

With Donald Trump and Ted Cruz dominating the polls in Iowa and Trump basically wrapping up the New Hampshire Primary already (Feb. 9), the establishment better get a plan together to get behind one candidate or it’s over.

The four remaining establishment candidates, Rubio/Bush/Kasich/Christie, are all chugging along in Iowa and New Hampshire with poll numbers ranging from 6 percent-13 percent in each state. These numbers are toxic to a candidate because they are not low enough to make them bow out, but they are not nearly high enough to catch a front-runner Trump who is in the mid-30s.

These candidates’ ego will always tell them that they are just day or two away from a breakout. The poll numbers of these candidates provide enough oxygen to walk briskly, but not really run like you need to. The fracturing of this traditional Republican block in these early states is paving the way for Trump.

The question is now what to do? The logical thing to do is for these establishment candidates to set up a meeting to carve out a deal as to who is the best suited to beat Trump, and promise jobs to the other three candidates.

Condensing the establishment lane down to one would allow the donors and PACs to focus their resources for widespread ad buys, and more importantly provide the voters with stark differences between Trump, Cruz and establishment candidate X.

Having that candidate X in the race may also be able to peel away some of Ted Cruz’s hard right, evangelical support who view him as the only true Conservative in the race.
There is just too much noise back and forth from those four establishment candidates for any of them to actually break out.

Limiting the options of those voters and having a pared down debate stage is what is needed. A two-hour debate with Trump, Cruz and candidate X would put Trump in a very difficult predicament since it would then turn to more in-depth policy questions.

This is where Trump could look like the emperor with no clothes. He is big on platitudes, big on offending other candidates and Obama, but he is very weak when it comes to specifics of how a Trump presidency would govern.

He is not a wonky candidate who wants to go into the weeds on what specific actions he would take on foreign policy, how he would enact his bold trade agreements, or how he would address Obamacare and other domestic issues.

The reality is that Trump losing the nomination is starting to look like a Hail Mary pass. It might be too late to stop him. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he may sweep Super Tuesday on March 1.

There may be nothing that can be done to stop a Trump Nomination due to the fact that he is expanding the Republican Base with Regan Democrats and voters who haven’t voted in years, which I wrote about here.

Donald Trump has ignited a fire with a lot of Republican, independent and even Democratic voters that most pundits thought would go out by the end of the summer. Then the predictions were that it wouldn’t get passed Thanksgiving, and now we are on the cusp of the first primaries with Trump’s position only strengthened.

The experts underestimated the anger that voters are feeling, and the establishment Republican Party is about to be put to sleep unless they make a last ditch effort at mounting a singular candidate, but that is not looking promising.

No one wants to run for president to accept a Cabinet position, but it’s looking like these establishment candidates will go home with nothing . . . and a political party changed forever.

Kevin Broderick serves as a consultant for a Fortune 500 Insurer in the Employee Benefits marketplace for large employers. He received a finance degree from Providence College. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
 

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KevinBroderick
Trump losing the nomination is starting to look like a Hail Mary pass. It might be too late to stop him.
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2016-44-22
Friday, 22 Jan 2016 02:44 PM
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