There is exactly one year to go until inauguration day.
After Saturday’s three contests, in Nevada and South Carolina, the races in the two parties are coming a bit more into focus. First, let us examine the GOP race:
Romney’s campaign was smart to ditch South Carolina where he wasn’t going to do well anyway and grab all the attention from winning the heretofore unheard-of Nevada caucuses.
Plus, they were smart PR-wise, too. Those caucuses were a mid-day affair in Nevada so they were able to dominate the afternoon and evening news cycles by proclaiming, “Romney wins Nevada.”
Plus, Romney actually won more delegates in Nevada than were up-for-grabs in South Carolina.
So as of today Romney’s argument is that he is ahead in delegates, has won three contests to McCain’s two and Huckabee’s one. Plus he has, by far, the most money to continue on for the coming long months of slogging.
Look for Fred Thompson to withdraw within a day or so. His heart was never into this race. His goal? To be McCain’s running mate. And that is a distinct possibility.
Look for Rudy Giuliani — remember him? — to continue to fade away after his one day in the Sunshine State on Jan. 29. He is not going to win Florida, McCain or Romney will. And that will be the end for one of the worst-run, most ill-conceived presidential campaigns ever!
It is a delicious irony to see this arrogant man, who months ago demeaned Ron Paul, lose to Rep. Paul three contests in a row!
Rudy will be gone after Feb. 5.
Now, onto McCain: The mainstream media falls all over themselves to drag him across the finish line. Watching them slobbering all over Mcain after his close win in the Palmetto State is, frankly, humorous, predictable and disgusting. And it hurts him with many GOP voters.
The base of the Republican Party, conservative primary voters, does not like, and isn’t voting for him, either. He only got 33 percent of the vote; that means two-thirds, 67 percent of the GOP, is against him.
The animosity against McCain inside the Republican Party is palpable; people actively dislike him.
It is hard to believe that this man can, in the end, win the GOP nomination. He just has too much baggage for the right to accept him.
His biggest asset is the belief by some that he is the most electable Republican.
This race will go on for months. It will be a three-man race: McCain, Romney and Huckabee. Each has baggage, lots of baggage, and each has big problems uniting a fractured GOP.
The odds slightly favor Romney in the long haul. Because he has the most money and the mainstream Republicans seem to be coming to him bit by bit. And he is the only candidate with an iota of business and economic experience, which fits with the growing fear of a recession.
The Democrats: Hillary is back in front. Since getting off the mat in New Hampshire she has won each day and is exerting her will on the party. Obama must win South Carolina now.
The race is slipping away, and fast, from Obama so he needs some wins and some debate knock-out punches to revive his chances.
He needs to get aggressive with Hillary and also to propose three innovative things he would do as president. He needs some beef! Some flesh on the bones of his candidacy.
Edwards? Why is he still in the race? Maybe he hopes either Hillary or Obama will make a huge error and he can be elevated into the other choice. Or he wants to cut a deal for vice president with one of them.
Plus he must know this: This is his last rodeo. Two runs for the White House is all you get in modern-day politics. Any more than that, without winning, and you are seen as a joke.
So that is where we are. Rest assured: some big S=surprises are coming — soon.
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