DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- At a gathering of Iran's reformist leaders, former President Mohammad Khatami sat silently like an elder statesman as younger voices decried their nation's path under four years of arch-conservative rule. Then came some sobering clarity: A top Khatami adviser noted the hard-line backers of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appear more unified and focused for elections this June. No one disagreed. Khatami's weekend decision to enter the presidential race gave many Iranian liberals the jump-start they were craving. But the cautionary note at that December meeting still rings true: There will be nothing easy about defeating Ahmadinejad, who is backed by the clerical establishment and security guardians. This, experts say, is lesson No. 1 in assessing the race. To many in the West, Ahmadinejad seems ripe to fall. His diatribes against Israel and questions about the Holocaust earned him high-level snubs and denunciations. His tough line on Iran's nuclear ambitions brought more isolation and threats of further sanctions. But at home, he has many admirers. The nuclear program _ which Iran claims is only for energy production _ is often viewed as a proud technological leap. And when Iran reported the launch of its first domestically made satellite and booster rocket Feb. 3, Ahmadinejad called the country a new "superpower." That's a 24-carat sound bite to his political base: the lower-income and provincial voters who bask in Iran's achievements and care far less about Iran's international reputation. Ahmadinejad also has been on a spending spree aimed at those Iranians: boosting state pensions, making low-interest loans and maintaining subsidies that keep gasoline prices among the lowest in the world. It's worked with voters like Mahin Rahimi, a retired pharmaceutical factory worker in gritty south Tehran. Her monthly state pension has doubled to about $560. "I will vote for Ahmadinejad _ again," said Rahimi, 56, carrying a shopping bag full of bread, vegetables and subsidized cooking oil. There also is some political payback, said Patrick Clawson, deputy director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Ahmadinejad "can call on people from outside the elite circles who don't share the (liberal) values and who feel they were sneered at during the Khatami years _ and they were." The incumbent can count on goodwill from the top as well. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, shows no sign of abandoning Ahmadinejad, who was Tehran's mayor before becoming president. Perhaps even more critical is backing from the Revolutionary Guard, the military corps that also controls a vast volunteer militia that serves as a street-ready campaign force. History is on Ahmadinejad's side, too. No incumbent president has lost an election in Iran since 1981, two years after the Islamic Revolution. The reformist movement has been rudderless since Khatami left the presidency in 2005, and the candidate is now trying to regroup his natural constituents _ young educated voters and others chafing at Iran's confrontations with the West. He also must try to win support in Iran's provincial cities and villages while contending with a populist style honed by Ahmadinejad during four years in office: mixing folksy humility with heated attacks on Iran's perceived enemies. State television _ directly controlled by the ruling clerics _ often show Ahmadinejad's gatherings in small towns and at funerals for veterans of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. "There are many obstacles facing Khatami," said Mohammad Shariati, a Khatami adviser. "He doesn't have any media outlet. He is the target of attacks from state media." In late December, Iran's supreme leader lauded Ahmadinejad as "revolutionary, loyal, capable, active and brave." Khamenei left out any mention of the president's weakest point _ the economy. Iran's double-digit inflation and chronic unemployment (about 30 percent by unofficial estimates) are potential snags for Ahmadinejad. The plunge in world oil prices also has been a big blow. Still, annual growth remains a respectable 5 percent as the world stumbles into recession. A report Thursday by Washington-based PFC Energy, a leading consultant firm, sharply criticized Ahmadinejad, saying he followed "misguided priorities" in boosting spending and failing to save some of the oil windfall before price collapsed. "Iran is clearly poised for a hard landing in 2009," said Hanan Amin-Salem, PFC Energy's director. That may stir up support for Khatami. And there is a nostalgia factor in his favor. Many liberal-leaning Iranians look back at his eight years in office as a period of heady possibilities. The media and art world pushed new boundaries and Khatami made strides in healing ties with Europe and opening new possibilities for dialogue with Washington. But there were clear limits. The ruling clerics and powerful appointed bodies such as the Guardian Council blocked nearly every bid to significantly loosen social and political restrictions. "Khatami's main strength _ that is his liberal base _ is also a source of his weakness," said Kaveh Afrasiabi, a U.S.-based author and scholar of Iranian affairs. This has important implications for the new U.S. administration as it studies whether to open diplomatic channels with Tehran. Despite his anti-American frothing, Ahmadinejad offers a direct line to the ruling theocracy, which has the final word on critical moves, such as a proposal to open a U.S. interest section in Tehran after nearly three decades of diplomatic freeze. Ahmadinejad's government has said it would consider the idea; a Khatami presidency would likely be stonewalled by conservatives. "There's a bit of irony here, but actually Ahmadinejad may be better poised to deal with the West because the leadership is speaking in a single voice," said Afrasiabi. Some, however, see new political alliances forming that could upend current assumptions. Even Ahmadinejad's son, who also acts as an adviser to the president, has said some kind of middle-ground coalition is possible. "One can see formation of a unity between so-called conservatives and reformists against Ahmadinejad," Ali Reza Ahmadinejad wrote in his blog. ___ Murphy has followed Iranian affairs since 1999. Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi and Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran contributed to this report.
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